tickingover wrote: Hey Guys,

See attached regression analysis of all Connacht Home Games in the league for the last 11 years, since the league went to single table format.

Wow, you absolute geek

As it happens, I've been maintaining a table of attendances over the years for my own geeky use (inspired by the this year vs. last year thread).

It was a pain in the ass manually scraping the data from the pro-12 website (indeed I probably made a few mistakes) but maybe some here might have a use for it.

I'm kind of sorry that I didn't compare Game 1 this year, with Game 1 last year, etc, as the different Christmas interpro combinations skews things quite a lot. It would also be interesting to see the extent to which attendances dropped off as we fell further out of contention as the years progressed (something that I would hope won't happen this season).

In any case, it is what it is.

Connacht v.	2014-15	2013-14	2012-13	2011-12	2010-11	2009-10
Newport Gwent Dragons	4,123	4,033	4,958	3,706	1,371	1,485
Leinster Rugby	5,917	7,210	5,813	6,582	4,582	3,250
Cardiff Blues	5,247	5,168	3,869	3,996	1,856	1,425
Zebre	5486	4,084	4,856
Scarlets	5,631	4,172	4,074	3,408	1,135	1,756
Munster Rugby		6,227	7,789	7,022	4,795	4,125
Edinburgh Rugby		4,038	4,930	4,324	1,586	1,460
Benetton Treviso		3,850	4,112	3,614	1,563
Ulster Rugby		5,485	6,463	5,017	3,761	2,435
Glasgow Warriors		4,185	6,081	4,189	1,268	1,982
Ospreys		3,888	4,680	4,107	2,035	1,412
Average	5,281	4,758	5,239	4,597	2,395	2,148

Hey Guys,

Any amateur statisticians might get a kick out of this (real statisticians will see through it ). See attached regression analysis of all Connacht Home Games in the league for the last 11 years, since the league went to single table format. I thought I'd try to finally answer the friday vs sat better attendance question.....and it turns out it makes no difference....statistically speaking..... The only thing that seems to matter is that it's vs Munster or Leinster (Ulster is actually relatively insignificant) on a dry day (RR is rainfall in 0.1mm), later in the evening is better, the result of the last home game(D>>W>>L) and last 3 home games.

Tonnes of caveats and the model doesn't really have enough data to be 100% accurate only 120ish games, official attendances only, european games are ignored, don't have TV coverage yes or no, weather is roughly estimated.......but was doing it for college anyway so.....

NB. the regression is done on the percentage deviation from the average attendance for that season. (significant factors highlighted in yellow)

Gates Numbers 2013-14 vs 2014-15= Difference

Dragons 4,033 ..... 4,123 .. UP 90
Leinster 7,210 ..... 5,917 ... DOWN 1,293
Cardiff 5,168 ....... 5,247 ... UP 79
Zebre 4,084.......5,486..... UP 1,402
Scarlets 4,172 ...... 5,631 .... UP 1,459
Munster 6,227
Edinburgh 4,038
Treviso 3,850
Ulster 5,485
Glasgow 4,185
Ospreys 3,888

We're up 1,737 on same league games as last season

Heineken Cup 2013-2014
Toulouse (tier 1).....7,210
Saracens (tier 2)..... 7,546
Zebre (tier 4)........ 5,217

TOTAL 19,973 AVERAGE 6,657

Challenge Cup 20014-2015
Exeter (tier 1)
Bayonne (tier 2)....... 4,425
La Rochelle (tier 4) .... 4,735

Wasn't a bad crowd for a game like that. Still think they are shooting themselves in the foot a bit with these games price wise though, especially for behind the posts.

Gates Numbers 2013-14 vs 2014-15= Difference

Dragons 4,033 ..... 4,123 .. UP 90
Leinster 7,210 ..... 5,917 ... DOWN 1,293
Cardiff 5,168 ....... 5,247 ... UP 79
Zebre 4,084
Scarlets 4,172
Munster 6,227
Edinburgh 4,038
Treviso 3,850
Ulster 5,485
Glasgow 4,185
Ospreys 3,888


Heineken Cup 2013-2014
Toulouse (tier 1).....7,210
Saracens (tier 2)..... 7,546
Zebre (tier 4)........ 5,217

TOTAL 19,973 AVERAGE 6,657

Challenge Cup 20014-2015
Exeter (tier 1)
Bayonne (tier 2)
La Rochelle (tier 4) .... 4,735

Sol_ie wrote: There seemed to be a bit of a niggle with ST aswell. If you'd renewed your ST was rejected. No hassle, mind, waves us straight in.

I take it the way they do the numbers is total ST + Tickets sold and given away?

ya seems to be that way. i hadnt renewed my ST yet so didnt have problem there but heard others say it and there wasnt much of a problem.

rant deleted.

There seemed to be a bit of a niggle with ST aswell. If you'd renewed your ST was rejected. No hassle, mind, waves us straight in.

I take it the way they do the numbers is total ST + Tickets sold and given away?

Sol_ie wrote: I noticed at the last game that they announced 'tickets sold'. The numbers did seem to be a good bit lower than what was announced.

ya tickets sold. one reason not tickets used was i won 2 tickets, had to collect at the gate. person working there (we all know him) couldnt find my tickets. he had a quick look for them. i won tickets from same place about twice this year and had no problem at the ticket office from another person. i was just going to hand them out anyways as myself and my friends already had tickets. since its a bank holiday ill wait till tomorrow and find out what happened to my tickets

I noticed at the last game that they announced 'tickets sold'. The numbers did seem to be a good bit lower than what was announced.

Thats us done now till the new season. Most games numbers are down. Fingers crossed they will be up next season

Gates Numbers 2012-13 vs 2013-14= Difference

Zebre 4856........4,084== DOWN 772
Ulster 6,463......5,485== DOWN 978
Ospreys 4680......3,888== DOWN 792
Glasgow 6081......4,185== DOWN 1,896
Scarlets 4074.....4,172== UP 98
Dragons 4958......4,033== DOWN 925
Leinster 5813.....7,210== UP 1,397
Edinburgh 4930....4,038== DOWN 892
Treviso 4112......3,850== DOWN 262
Munster 7789......6,227== DOWN 1,562
Cardiff 3869......5,168== UP 1,299

DOWN 5,285 from the same games last season.

This season 52,340; average 4,758
2012-13 total 57,625 average 5,238

Heineken Cup 2012-2013
biarritz (tier 1) ......6,583
harlequins (tier 2) .... 8,199
zebre (tier 4).......... 5,803

total 20,585 average 6,861

Heineken Cup 2013-2014
Toulouse (tier 1).....7,210
Saracens (tier 2)..... 7,546
Zebre (tier 4)........ 5,217

TOTAL 19,973 AVERAGE 6,657

2013/14 HCUP & RABO Total = 72,313 Average = 5,165

2012/13 HCUP & RABO Total = 78,210 Average = 5,586

Shelflife wrote:
Why isnt arent the Hcup games all sell outs? simple really, the tickets are too dear, Zebre this weekend costs €33 each. if you were to ask your partner where would they prefer to spend €66, standing on the bohermore end hoping it doesnt rain watching the bottom two teams in the Rabo slug it out OR an early bird meal in a GOOD restaurant with wine I think you will get your answer.

This isn't something that only connacht are facing. Edinburgh are relatively a worse team compared to a couple of seasons ago (they made the HCup semis, had 38k for their home quarter final) and they struggle to get crowds in now. Walk up tickets are £25 so about a fiver less than connacht tickets, and has covered seating. Now that murrayfield has been dug up they've moved to a stadium with a 3k capacity and don't look like they'll sell it out too often in their few remaining games.

Glasgow moved to a new smaller stadium about 30mins from the city centre (used to be about 10mins) and numbers aren't great for them either, and their tickets are more expensive - think I paid £32 for a walkup ticket.

Not too sure what the answer is to increase attendances, but the year Edinburgh got to the Hcup semis and had big crowds was the first year they had pitchside standing. Connacht could do something similar if they let people stand on the dog track, but the grey hound folk may have something to say about it.

May be more stuff to do before the games might get the crowds in - I was at a man city game a few years ago in the concourse outside the stadium there was tons of stuff for kids to do - beat the keeper/penalties, mountain bike displays and other games. The puritans wouldn't be happy to see this as it might be seen as a distraction from the rugby, but if you're trying to build up numbers, you need to get the kids interested as they'll pester their parents into going.

Leinster 9
Total - 181,040
Average - 20,116

Ulster 9
Total - 115,924
Average - 12,880

Munster 9
Total - 109,754
Average - 12,195

Ospreys 9
Total - 72,233
Average - 8,026

Cardiff 10
Total - 73,560
Average - 7,356

Scarlets 8
Total - 58,255
Average - 7,282

Dragons 8
Total - 48,704
Average - 6,088

Glasgow 7
Total - 34,216
Average - 4,888

Connacht 9
Total - 40,945
Average - 4,549

Edinburgh 9
Total - 40,721
Average - 4,525

Treviso 9
Total - 34,406
Average - 3,823

Zebre 9
Total - 18,725
Average - 2,081

Below i added last years numbers, hard to judge the welsh teams with the 'big game'.
im very impressed with Ulster, already have more attendance then last year with 2 sell outs coming, us and leinster. What numbers will they have next year?
Dragons are on average 700 better of this season then lastseason. (rodney parade average).
sadly were 700 down on average.
edinburgh have moved from murrayfield to meggetland and had 6,333 at there last game, easily the highest of the season apart from the scottish derby

there was 36,174 at the Millennium Stadium. im going to split that in half for dragons and blues and ill leave the other number for rodney parade and cardiff arms park also

leinster 11
total-215,502
average-19,591

munster 11
total-155,491
average-14,135

ulster 11
total-113,772
average-10,342

ospreys 11
total-102,010
average-9,273

cardiff 10

---

cardiff 11
total-80,176

---

total 98,263
average-8,017

---

average 8,933

scarlets 11
total-87,159
average-7,923

dragons 10

---

dragons 11
total-53,615

---

total 71,702
average-5,361

---

average 6,518

connacht 11
total-57,625
average-5,238

glasgow 11
total-49,951
average-4,541

edinburagh 11
total-49,726
average-4,521

treviso 11
total-39,950
average-3,631

zebre 11
total-22,275
average-2,025

Its been awhile so better getting cracking, where did i leave my calculator

Gates Numbers 2012-13 vs 2013-14= Difference

Zebre 4856........4,084== DOWN 772
Ulster 6,463......5,485== DOWN 978
Ospreys 4680......3,888== DOWN 792
Glasgow 6081......4,185== DOWN 1,896
Scarlets 4074.....4,172== UP 98
Dragons 4958......4,033== DOWN 925
Leinster 5813.....7,210== UP 1,397
Edinburgh 4930....4,038== DOWN 892
Treviso 4112......3,850== DOWN 262
Munster 7789......
Cardiff 3869......

DOWN 5,022 from the same games last season.

So far this season 40,945; average 4,549
2012-13 total 57,625 average 5,238

Heineken Cup 2012-2013
biarritz (tier 1) ......6,583
harlequins (tier 2) .... 8,199
zebre (tier 4).......... 5,803

total 20,585 average 6,861

Heineken Cup 2013-2014
Toulouse (tier 1).....7,210
Saracens (tier 2)..... 7,546
Zebre (tier 4)........ 5,217

TOTAL 19,973 AVERAGE 6,657


If we got average at 4,800 and less then -5000, it would be something. To do that, we need 12,000 people at last 2 games. Sadly i havent heard, clan sold out or main stand sold out which is a worry, okay 2 and half weeks left but the amount of plastic munster fans in galway you'd expect something sold. So 7,000 at munster and 5,000 at Cardiff, (free season ticket tickets) it can be done.

I think they need to make the ST even more attractive, If you get people to buy a ST they WILL make a special effort to go to the games and they WILL encourage others to go to the games as well.

When you have the ST it gets ingrained in your mind that you are going and the fact that it Treviso on a cold and wet night with a 2 1/2 hr round trip is just ignored, if you dont have the ticket in your pocket weeelll its cold and its wet and its only Treviso and I couldnt be arsed driving tonight.

ST holders bring others to games, thats a fact this season alone ive had 8 extra people at the game and id say one of them will be a STH next year. If they can look after the STH with good prices and plenty of add ons that are exclusive to STH , this will encourage others to make the commitment.

Connacht are nowhere near the position where they can put prices up, even a std Rabo game will set 2 walk ups back €44, thats alot of dosh in anyones language, im aware that costs need to be covered but if you set the prices at a reasonable level more people will be eccourage to go and to come back and when they see the perks that the STH gets they will be encouraged to buy one as well.

Overall I tink that they have done a great job on the back of the HCup. Average attendances of nearly 5000 for rabo and 7000 for HCup are a huge improvement on where we were.

Why are attendances falling?

Borders raises some good and valid points.

The season ticket is good value if you go to ALL of the games -thats afair commitment from someone living in Galway never mind furthur afield, if you miss 3 games in a season its not worth it.thats one of the reasons why people didnt renew, once they didnt get the season ticket the commitment or drive to make as many games isnt there.

Why isnt arent the Hcup games all sell outs? simple really, the tickets are too dear, Zebre this weekend costs €33 each. if you were to ask your partner where would they prefer to spend €66, standing on the bohermore end hoping it doesnt rain watching the bottom two teams in the Rabo slug it out OR an early bird meal in a GOOD restaurant with wine I think you will get your answer.

The attendances have been poor. If you went with the actual numbers who were at the Ospreys (All-Ireland day, the crowd was hardly 2000 I'd say) and Dragons games it'd be a lot worse. I know season tickets are counted whether there or not. To not get a full house against Toulouse after the win a week previously was disappointing.

For me there are a number of reasons:
1) Performances/results on the field have in general been poor and if a team isn't winning, in Ireland (and Galway) in particular support drifts pretty quickly.

2) Surcharge & price of entry into games, its only a few euro but it annoys people and can tip the balance if someone is undecided. I know we need to make revenue some how but charging €30 (plus extras) to watch the two weakest sides in the Rabo and in reality the Heineken is madness especially for someone standing behind the posts if the weather is as you'd expect. Season tickets are good value but I know from experience some of my friends who may go to a few matches a season, don't have €25-30+ to spend just to get into a game (or can't justify spending that amount on a Connacht game) I would in years past have tried to coax some part time supporters along to games but I don't now as I believe it is too much of a stretch for many people.

3) Saturdays at 5pm. Its a good time to get more kids to the games but imo its too early and the atmosphere for a lot of games at that time has been non-existent. I'd go with 7.30 or 8 on Friday or around 7 on a Saturday (I know the dogs are Friday & Saturday also). No matter what time you select it won't suit everyone but I think its the best option.

4) I think that after the initial excitement of the Heineken Cup wore off it was going to be hard to keep many of the new fans as there isn't that glamour associated with Connacht most weeks. Dour struggles against Dragons etc. are only for the committed.

5) I think the €450k unspoken of black hole may be an issue. People don't want to be spending their money when it is of no tangible benefit to improving the side.

6) Off the pitch. As a follow up from the previous point, we are still being led by what is effectively a temporary IRFU yes man. He may be great, I don't know anything about him but the lack of a permanent presence to drive the province forward off the pitch isn't helping in any number of ways.