connachta wrote: For the french opponent of Cardiff it's more complex : it's Stade Français OR Stade Français
A lot at stake for Stade Français in the Challenge Cup final

Isn't there some enquiry into the Montpellier v Stade game?
www.rugbyrama.fr/rugby/top-14/2016-2017/...o6156148/story.shtml

Stade could be awarded the win, pushes them to 6th meaning they qualify automatically and its Racing 92 that move down to 7th

Ahh French rugby drama

it be good .. it all depends on numbers I gyess

Wondering what the plan would be for the play offs. Another mass exodus bus wise or everyone make their own way.....

connachta wrote: For the french opponent of Cardiff it's more complex : it's Stade Français OR Stade Français
A lot at stak for Stade Français in the Challenge Cup final

Stade fielded a second string last night. Very unlucky not to have succeeded. Team well rested in advance of Challenge Cup final.

For the french opponent of Cardiff it's more complex : it's Stade Français OR Stade Français
A lot at stake for Stade Français in the Challenge Cup final

eezipc wrote:

Bazzo wrote:

eezipc wrote: So just to be clear,
Connacht will be playing Northampton. However, if Gloucester win the challenge cup, then Gloucester will take Northamptons place.

Yep

TG4seem convinced that it's Northampton.

Yeah they're getting blasted for it everywhere online too, they even said it to Lam....

Bazzo wrote:

eezipc wrote: So just to be clear,
Connacht will be playing Northampton. However, if Gloucester win the challenge cup, then Gloucester will take Northamptons place.

Yep

TG4seem convinced that it's Northampton.

eezipc wrote: So just to be clear,
Connacht will be playing Northampton. However, if Gloucester win the challenge cup, then Gloucester will take Northamptons place.

Yep

So just to be clear,
Connacht will be playing Northampton. However, if Gloucester win the challenge cup, then Gloucester will take Northamptons place.

Hopefully it'll be Northampton, at least lose somewhere else. Another defeat to Gloucester to cap off this depressing last few weeks would be too hard to stomach.

Well pinky my apologies, because of unlikely Quins BP, It should be Northampton. Still think Gloucester in Edinburgh have a fair chance to make it through instead of them though
Whatever now, we have to focus of reviving a bit of rugby into our current mess...

EDIT : Favgav, wrote this at the exact same time you did!

So it's Northampton or Gloucester. Could book flights for Birmingham if you knew the date....

Any ideas when the dates to the play off game would be announced? After challenge cup final I suppose?

Gloucester sound bullish and are fielding a strong backline today vs Exeter

www.gloucesterrugby.co.uk/news/13849.php#.WQ2t-uXyvIU

but journalists believe that Gloucester are saving their best for the Challange cup final

www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2017/may/...ester-weakened-teams

I guess the focus is on Northampton vs Quins today and see if the Challange Cup outcome affects plans next weekend.

Odds shortening a bit on Quins to get the result they need in Northampton.
In France, Racing, Toulon and Montpellier are even shorter prices than I would have thought, so that would make it a straight shootout between Lyon and Brive. If Lyon beat Grenoble, they should be seventh. If they don't and Brive beat Castres, Brive are seventh. That assumes Paris don't get an LBP in Montpellier. If they do, they could have wrapped up the playoff spot before the final.
The French games kick off at 1945 our time and the English ones are at 1600, so should be able to catch a bit of both before and after our one.
Edit: Grenoble are now favourites to beat Lyon - not sure what caused that swing, but it would make it about 50/50 between Brive and Lyon. Kop Cabiste could be back in the Sportsground yet

Bookies have but up early prices on next weekend's Premiership matches and if their handicap odds are an indication of results we have:
Newcastle to beat Bristol by 3
Exeter to beat Gloucester by 6
Northampton to beat Harlequins by 6

If those were the actual results, Harlequins would qualify automatically in 6th and Northampton would finish 7th and would probably be dressing up in pink and heading to Edinburgh to sing La Marseillaise.
Saints would only need to better that score by 2 points to get through and put Quins in the waiting room.

For Gloucester to guarantee their spot a week early, they would need themselves and Quins to win.
A double on that would be a little over 15/2
For Newcastle, they'd need themselves, Quins and Exter to win (a little over 6/1)

Lobbing all those odds (and the Challenge Cup odds) into the old enigma machine throws out the following probabilities to get a visit from Connacht:

Gloucester 47%
Harlequins 26%
Northampton 23%
Newcastle 4%

I had to take a guess at the odds of Northampton -7.5 and I ignored the effect of try bonus points as I hadn't the foggiest how to account for them so I just assumed they cancel each other out somehow.
Edit: Actually Newcastle should be a bit lower as they either need Quins to deny Northampton a BP or else get one at Bristol.
Edit2: I've adjusted the numbers slightly to account for the above + I didn't take into account a few draws and also the fact that Gloucester's odds against Exeter have drifted a lot since yesterday - so they might be slightly more accurate now.