Fourdogs wrote:

salmson wrote: If teams are level it's games won then points difference.

If you use Tall Paul's info then we would finish 8th.
Both finishing with 10 wins each but with only 2 points gap in the points difference at the moment ( -14 for Connacht and -16 for Cardiff) his suggestion that Cardiff could get 2 wins to our 1 win could see them overtake us.

Yeah they should rack up a fair few points at home to Zebre too so really they just need to get level with us on points. This one will go all the way to Thomond at this stage. Best thing probably is if they both keep winning ...

Quins collapsed in the last quarter at home to Chiefs so they're probably the most likely English representative in the playoff at this stage, especially if Saints do a job on Saracens on Sunday.

salmson wrote: If teams are level it's games won then points difference.

If you use Tall Paul's info then we would finish 8th.
Both finishing with 10 wins each but with only 2 points gap in the points difference at the moment ( -14 for Connacht and -16 for Cardiff) his suggestion that Cardiff could get 2 wins to our 1 win could see them overtake us.

If teams are level it's games won then points difference.

3 games left. So many outcomes that could happen
I would be happy with 6 points (1w 2 loosing BP) that would put us on 50 pts

Cardiff could get 10 pts ( 1 BP win, 1 win, 1bp lost) which will also put them on 50
Any tables I looked at does not give score diff which I would imagine is the way they decide who comes next or is it BP?

For the craic, I took a stab at the results for the rest of the Top 14 season to see what the table would come out like, and it looks something like this:

1 87 La Rochelle
2 77 Clermont
3 73 Montpellier
4 65 Toulon
5 61 Castres
6 60 Brive
7 57 Racing 92
8 57 Pau
9 57 Paris
10 55 Toulouse
11 53 Bordeaux-Bègles
12 50 Lyon
13 37 Grenoble
14 30 Bayonne

I mostly went for home wins and didn't give any bonus points. Based on that, it's still tight as hell. Only thing I learned is that Brive are genuine contenders for the barrages and Bordeaux are probably fecked, though of course that could all turn upside down if Bordeaux win on Saturday.
If Brive beat Bordeaux this weekend and Racing do much better than the miserable four points I've given them (i.e. win in the Ernest Wallon on Sunday or the Jean Bouin two weeks later), then I fancy Brive to be seventh.

Ultimately Racing don't really suffer much - they just have to play on a spare weekend. But Stade get a good shafting. That should increase the camaraderie in the run-up to the derby
Not great for Castres either but I assume they will rest everyone for the trip to Toulon this weekend and concentrate on the home games against Paris and Toulouse.

pinky wrote: Apparently Castres v Paris is next Wednesday and Montpellier v Racing is the euro semi weekend. No mention of it on the LNR website but it's on other fixture lists.
www.eurosport.com/rugby/top-14/calendar-result.shtml
Big ask for Paris to play 3 huge games in a week.

I believe both Racing and Stade are to leave their internationals out of the 23 for those reset fixtures. Montpellier had cited the availability of those players as reason for not postponing the fixture initially, and again when trying to claim the points.

Apparently Castres v Paris is next Wednesday and Montpellier v Racing is the euro semi weekend. No mention of it on the LNR website but it's on other fixture lists.
www.eurosport.com/rugby/top-14/calendar-result.shtml
Big ask for Paris to play 3 huge games in a week.

One thing I hadn't considered is that depending on the Challenge Cup semi-final results, we mightn't know our first opponent until the weekend before the game.
I was thinking we'd have two weeks to plan but if Gloucester or Stade Francais are in the final, and we're going to the relevant country, we'll still have two options until the week before.
You'd imagine La Rochelle will beat Gloucester but bookies have Stade favourites to beat Bath.
So if we finish ahead of Cardiff and Stade beat Bath (and don't finish in top 7 themselves), we'll have Stade if they win and the seventh placed team if they lose.

Cardiff 4 pts behind, but with a home game v Zebre and a derby game v Dragons still to play. Connacht could still finish beneath them and get a shot at home advantage in the PO final...bizarre set up that Connacht's "reward" for finishing above Cardiff is 2 away games to get the 20th spot, whereas Cardiff potentially have a home tie in the final...

Looking like a straight fight between Quins and Saints for 7th in AP (although Gloucester could still get it, if they win the Challenge Cup). Top 14 very wide open - 4 points cover 5th-11th (Pau, Castres, R92, Brive, Lyon, Stade and UBB). Stade also with a chance by winning the Challenge Cup.

Warburton barely plays it'll have barely any influence

Warburton out for the run-in. Makes it harder for Connacht to secure Bottom Five
www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/apr/11/sa...ix-weeks-rugby-union

Toulouse have played a game more than racing (and two others in the hunt) as well as being 6 behind.

Out of interest, why are we writing off Toulouse? Six off the pace with surely a gimme 5 at home to Bayonne on the last day. If they can take Racing at home next Sunday, they're firmly in the hunt, no?
Some interesting games coming up in that league from our point of view. I might just move to France for a couple of weeks, watching Connacht is too confusing. Brive v Bordeaux next weekend should eliminate one and leave the other in the mix. Paris v Pau will tell a lot too. Then the following week Brive travel to Pau, which if they both win the previous week, will be another eliminator. Meanwhile Toulouse go to Castres for what could be their last chance saloon and then there's the friendly bonhomie that is the Paris Derby.
I'm not even sure what the story is with the rescheduled games for the Paris teams, etc. Stade are in the CC semi final so I assume that one at least will have to be midweek, which could cause all kinds of chaos.
England kinda looks like a straight shootout between Northampton and Quins on the last day, with the losers in the playoffs, but I suppose if either of them loses their next two Glaws could make a late surge for it.

Fourdogs wrote: Any views now on if it will be England or France for the playoffs.

Hard to tell. We're a win ahead but Cardiff have one game left they will win (Treviso) and one they should win (Dragons at, effectively, a neutral venue in Virginia Park). We could easily lose all three.

The craggy lads reckon we're better off finishing 7th and going away to France as we have a good record there. This is true, we've beaten Toulouse, La Rochelle and Montpellier amongst others in recent years in France, and back in the day we beat a good number of teams in knockout matches - Grenoble, Beziers, Mont de Marsan, Narbonne - even if most of them are second tier now. But that still leaves us having to win away in England - something I think we've only done 2 or 3 times. Postponing a loss there by a week only makes pre-season a week shorter.

Added to that, you have to ask, just how difficult is winning successive away knockout matches in Europe, which is effectively what we'd be looking to do. In the last 10 seasons, just 4 of the 40 teams in the 2 European finals have done that - Stade Francais (CC 2013), Cardiff (CC 2010), Leinster (HEC 2009) & Munster (HEC 2008). And don't forget those teams didn't play those games 7 or 8 days apart like we'd have to.

If we finish 8th then we go to England and we lose and have an extra week of pre-season, or we win and we have pretty much a gimme at the Sportsground versus whatever overfed underworked French team rock up.

As to who we get, if we're away in France in week one we'd want Pau or Bordeaux, who have lost 4 & 3 home Top 14 games respectively. The other alternatives are Toulon (least likely of the possible opponents, and quite an ask) or one of a bunch of teams - Castres, Racing, Brive, Lyon & Stade - who have each lost just the one home league match this term. Conversely if we win in England and then are at home we want to avoid Pau & Bordeaux, as they are the only teams of the 8 we could face (still everyone but the top 3 and bottom 3 at this stage) that have decent away records.

I don't have any preference regarding English teams. Our record over there is so poor there isn't really any difference. If I had to plump for one I might go for Gloucs as I they seem flakiest of the possibilities and they're more of a known quantity.

3 games left and 4 points clear of Cardiff. We unfortunately have the harder series of games left.

Any views now on if it will be England or France for the playoffs.

Only thing almost certain is that it won't be Toulouse. After loosing today they are now down in 12th.