Conn Not 65 wrote: Completely agree with mikey By far the most unfriendly fans I've encountered. Personally I wouldn't mind Toulon . The Med in late Spring , jersey on and a pair of shorts... We can but dream !! Roll on Sunday..... Connacht abu!

Toulon would have to win away to Saracens with a TBP and by more than 8 points to get a home quarter so it seems pretty unlikely.

Completely agree with mikey By far the most unfriendly fans I've encountered. Personally I wouldn't mind Toulon . The Med in late Spring , jersey on and a pair of shorts... We can but dream !! Roll on Sunday..... Connacht abu!

pinky wrote: -" I'm not that enthused about another trip to Allianz Park

"

Give me anyplace but Allianz Park.Snotty fans,arrogant and stuck in the middle of a housing estate. And any team to win, ABS. Anyone But Saracens.

I would say that if the match is in Ireland it will be nearly as good as calling it a home game. Travelling support would be huge!

I wonder if the IRFU have made any plan for a Connacht home quarter final? It wouldnt be the first time we were over looked

pinky wrote:

RonanL wrote: PS: If we managed to secure a home quarter, would we have to play it somewhere bigger (i.e. Thomand) anyway?

Yep, fraid so. I think 18k capacity is the minimum but open to correction.

Home QF is technically possible if we get a win (any type) and Munster, Leinster, Saracens and Clermont all loose or only get LBP's.

RonanL wrote: PS: If we managed to secure a home quarter, would we have to play it somewhere bigger (i.e. Thomand) anyway?

Yep, fraid so. I think 18k capacity is the minimum but open to correction.

pinky wrote: I'm not that enthused about another trip to Allianz Park

You're not alone there Pinky. Obviously we'll take any quarter final berth we can secure, but I don't think there is a more sickening sight in rugby than Chris Ashton swan diving over the try line. A quarter final between us and Munster would be the business.

PS: If we managed to secure a home quarter, would we have to play it somewhere bigger (i.e. Thomand) anyway?

pinky wrote: Hmm, so most likely sixth seeds, possibly fifth.
The good news there (and I know I'm getting two steps ahead of myself here) is that fifth and sixth seeds are guaranteed a home country semi-final if they progress.
So a quarter in Thomond followed by a semi in Lansdowne ...
We should probably not bother getting the try bonus so - I'm not that enthused about another trip to Allianz Park

"I find, when you're an optimist, life has a funny way of looking after you". Simon Sinek :whistle:

Hmm, so most likely sixth seeds, possibly fifth.
The good news there (and I know I'm getting two steps ahead of myself here) is that fifth and sixth seeds are guaranteed a home country semi-final if they progress.
So a quarter in Thomond followed by a semi in Lansdowne ...
We should probably not bother getting the try bonus so - I'm not that enthused about another trip to Allianz Park

RonanL wrote: Anyone fancy summarising the most likely permutations for next week?

I won't be able to travel abroad for a quarter final, so I need us to qualify, and draw Leinster or Munster. Is that too much to ask for?

If we get a bonus point win we win the pool and will be fifth seed away to the fourth seed - probably Saracens - unless one of Leinster, Munster, Saracens, or Clermont mess up, in which case we'd be home to that team.

If we win without a bonus, draw, or lose with two bonus points, we're sixth seed and most likely away to Munster, assuming none of the other pool leaders mess up.

If we lose 4-1 on matchpoints we'll still be sixth seed unless Toulon pound Saracens away from home, but sure you might as well ask Zebre to beat Wasps given Toulon's recent away form.

Anything worse and we're out.

Oh, if only we had one more point or Toulouse had one less. It's a big ask going to Toulouse with all our injuries.
But travel in hope and go for Try's and see how it goes. I think so much will depend on how we do in the scrums . If we can win our ball and limit the scrum penalties to 3 or 4 we have a chance.
Stay in the game keep the ball alive . Run the legs off the big boys
I'll be a nervous wreck

Anyone fancy summarising the most likely permutations for next week?

I won't be able to travel abroad for a quarter final, so I need us to qualify, and draw Leinster or Munster. Is that too much to ask for?

ConnachtCows wrote:
.........We know exactly whats needed. The easiest way to make sure that we qualify, is to win....

So right lad. Our future is in our own hands.

We have done it before, no reason we can't do it again.

The simplest way to look at it is, we cannot allow Toulouse to get 4 or more match points more than us
Toulouse get 5, we need 2
Toulouse get 4, we need 1

It's good in that regard. We know exactly whats needed. The easiest way to make sure that we qualify, is to win.
Our number 1 target is to win, so take all points on offer
Our number two target is to not allow Toulouse to score tries, so we need to avoid giving away penalties, as they'll go to the corner as often as possible

We need to dominate possession, so that they have less chance of scoring. We need to avoid knock ons, as we gave away too many penalties from scrums in the reverse fixture. We also need to keep the score board ticking over. When we have chances, we need to take them.

A LBP will not be enough if Toulouse get BP win - unless we get a try BP also!

clear as mud

Agree Pinky. A bonus point loss, or draw sees us second in the group and almost certainly the best second place.