Nope, the aviva is less of a 'home' venue than thomond. Besides, I'd prefer to face Leinster (barely!)

btw do you think Thomond would be prefered to the Aviva in this situation?

wp_rathead wrote:

connachta wrote: So it's tight everywhere but if I'm doing the maths right (assuming Wasps BP in Parma) :
Done this fast, open to checking...

Connacht to lose by 8 --- out of it
Connacht to lose by 6 or by 7 points --- (away) QF against Munster!!!!
Connacht to win without BP, to draw or to lose by 1 to 5 points --- away QF against Sarries
Connacht to win with BP by less than 62 point-margin ---- (away) QF against Leinster!!!!
Connacht to win with BP by more than 62 point-margin ---- (home) QF against Leinster!!!

Thanks for doing that out
If Connacht lose by 8+ but get a TBP (and Toulouse don't) - will it be Munster away?

Yes I think so!

connachta wrote: So it's tight everywhere but if I'm doing the maths right (assuming Wasps BP in Parma) :
Done this fast, open to checking...

Connacht to lose by 8 --- out of it
Connacht to lose by 6 or by 7 points --- (away) QF against Munster!!!!
Connacht to win without BP, to draw or to lose by 1 to 5 points --- away QF against Sarries
Connacht to win with BP by less than 62 point-margin ---- (away) QF against Leinster!!!!
Connacht to win with BP by more than 62 point-margin ---- (home) QF against Leinster!!!

Thanks for doing that out
If Connacht lose by 8+ but get a TBP (and Toulouse don't) - will it be Munster away?

connachta wrote: So it's tight everywhere but if I'm doing the maths right (assuming Wasps BP in Parma) :
Done this fast, open to checking...

Connacht to lose by 8 --- out of it
Connacht to lose by 6 or by 7 points --- (away) QF against Munster!!!!
Connacht to win without BP, to draw or to lose by 1 to 5 points --- away QF against Sarries
Connacht to win with BP by less than 62 point-margin ---- (away) QF against Leinster!!!!
Connacht to win with BP by more than 62 point-margin ---- (home) QF against Leinster!!!

Just looked at this before I logged on and got the same result. Regardless of who we play getting to the QF is what we want!

Decadence wrote:

connachta wrote: I know but I hate those namings "Allianz, Aviva, Ricoch..."
I stop there, no politics I was told

I think you're confusing politics with geography!

You got my point, even if they moved into a new stadium, I'm reluctant to say the name "Allianz Park" and I don't know if there's another one

connachta wrote: I know but I hate those namings "Allianz, Aviva, Ricoch..."
I stop there, no politics I was told

I think you're confusing politics with geography!

I know but I hate those namings "Allianz, Aviva, Ricoch..."
I stop there, no politics I was told

connachta wrote:

Decadence wrote: The other results have not exactly gone our way, a couple more/less points for saracens/glasgow and we'd be guaranteed to avoid saracens.

That's a real pity for all-Ireland QF chances, but TBF, on a pure rugby point of view, I don't think a trip to Vicrage road is worse than facing any of Munster/Leinster in the Aviva, this season...

Well a trip to Vicarage Road would be fine with me, but they haven't played there in 4 years!

Decadence wrote: The other results have not exactly gone our way, a couple more/less points for saracens/glasgow and we'd be guaranteed to avoid saracens.

That's a real pity for all-Ireland QF chances, but TBF, on a pure rugby point of view, I don't think a trip to Vicrage road is worse than facing any of Munster/Leinster in the Aviva, this season...

The case in which we lose by 5 is peculiarly facinating and not unrealistic

Sarries are 3rd seed behind Munster only for a 2-point aggregate difference
And we would face them as 6th seed, ahead of Glasgow, with same number of points but also exact same aggregate difference, just resolved by more tries scored!

The other results have not exactly gone our way, a couple more/less points for saracens/glasgow and we'd be guaranteed to avoid saracens.

connachta wrote: So it's tight everywhere but if I'm doing the maths right (assuming Wasps BP in Parma) :
Done this fast, open to checking...

Connacht to lose by 8 --- out of it
Connacht to lose by 6 or by 7 points --- (away) QF against Munster!!!!
Connacht to win without BP, to draw or to lose by 1 to 5 points --- away QF against Sarries
Connacht to win with BP by less than 62 point-margin ---- (away) QF against Leinster!!!!
Connacht to win with BP by more than 62 point-margin ---- (home) QF against Leinster!!!

Thanks for that Connachta. But just to be clear, does anyone have any update to contradict this? I'll be sittting in the middle of Toulouse fans so I don't want to make a holy show of myself if Connacht lose by 6.
Also, what doToulouse need to qualify? Also, I'm thinking that they can only get an away quarter so hopefully they couldn't be arsed.

So it's tight everywhere but if I'm doing the maths right (assuming Wasps BP in Parma) :
Done this fast, open to checking...

Connacht to lose by 8 --- out of it
Connacht to lose by 6 or by 7 points --- (away) QF against Munster!!!!
Connacht to win without BP, to draw or to lose by 1 to 5 points --- away QF against Sarries
Connacht to win with BP by less than 62 point-margin ---- (away) QF against Leinster!!!!
Connacht to win with BP by more than 62 point-margin ---- (home) QF against Leinster!!!

Glasgow is hammering Leicester. Could change everthing for the ranks
Don't know who we could back between Munster and Racing then, to have our Munster vs Connacht QF... Point difference will be so tight...
I just get the feeling we will end with Sarries

Racing have started well at Thomond, and I think that's a good thing.

Rough top-of-my-head maths tells me that Connacht (if they qualify) will get an Irish team in the Quarter-Final if Munster don't get five points from this one. The alternative is Saracens.

The only caveat would be if Glasgow absolutely hockey Leicester, but it would have to be a 40+ point win.

So the long and short of it is that I'm being patriotic and shouting for the French.