Champions Cup Qualification 2017/18

And completely ruling out Quins getting a losing bonus at the Gardens to finish 6th?
Still lots to play for.

connachta wrote: Completely forgot about challengecup though, it didn't matter until this year

Of course it did. Gloucester beat Connacht at Kingsholm in a playoff two seasons ago. A game they qualified for by winning the Challenge Cup ...
And last season Bordeaux qualified as a result of Montpellier winning it.

Northampton are the most likely team to finish sixth, but it's far from certain. They are unlikely to win at Sandy Park tomorrow. If they fail to secure a LBP there then Quins will only need a LBP against them on the last day to qualify.
If Saints manage to lose both their remaining games, Gloucester or Newcastle could get to 7th, though that is a longshot at this stage.

We're almost certainly going to England now. Technically we can still finish ahead of Cardiff but it would mean a TBP in Thomond Park, nothing for Blues against Dragons and making up a 57 point deficit, so we can more or less forget about that.

Obviously it'll be Kingsholm if Gloucester win the Challenge Cup.
If they don't then there are still four teams in contention.

Northampton are at home to Harlequins on the last day. If Northampton get four more league points than Quins (i.e win and deny them a LBP or get a TBP themselves), then Harlequins are definitely 7th.
If Saints win and Quins get the LBP (and Saints don't get a TBP, or they both do) then Northampton are 7th (Quins would have more games won).
If Harlequins win then seventh is between 3 teams.
- Gloucester would get it if they beat Exeter at home.
- If they don't and Newcastle win away at Bristol (with a BP if Saints get one), they would get it
- Otherwise it's Northampton

Over in France, Toulon are now safe after beating Bordeaux away. Castres are now in the barrages too I think as they are 5 ahead of Paris with a better head to head so the worst they can do is 6th.
So one barrage spot and the playoff up for grabs and in theory 6 teams are still in contention for both. Going in to the last day 11 teams can still in theory win the title.
But you would expect Racing to beat Bordeaux at home, Montpellier to beat Paris and Toulon to beat Pau and Lyon should be able to beat Grenoble on the road. That would leave Racing sixth and Lyon seventh. So Cardiff would travel to Lyon if Gloucester win the Challenge Cup.
If Lyon lose, Brive could get 7th by beating Castres at home though bonus points and head-to-head would come into it. Obviously if Paris or Pau cause an upset away from home either of them could claim 7th (or get ahead of Racing and push them down to 7th).
Toulouse are now officially gone and Bordeaux would need a miracle.

Bookies have but up early prices on next weekend's Premiership matches and if their handicap odds are an indication of results we have:
Newcastle to beat Bristol by 3
Exeter to beat Gloucester by 6
Northampton to beat Harlequins by 6

If those were the actual results, Harlequins would qualify automatically in 6th and Northampton would finish 7th and would probably be dressing up in pink and heading to Edinburgh to sing La Marseillaise.
Saints would only need to better that score by 2 points to get through and put Quins in the waiting room.

For Gloucester to guarantee their spot a week early, they would need themselves and Quins to win.
A double on that would be a little over 15/2
For Newcastle, they'd need themselves, Quins and Exter to win (a little over 6/1)

Lobbing all those odds (and the Challenge Cup odds) into the old enigma machine throws out the following probabilities to get a visit from Connacht:

Gloucester 47%
Harlequins 26%
Northampton 23%
Newcastle 4%

I had to take a guess at the odds of Northampton -7.5 and I ignored the effect of try bonus points as I hadn't the foggiest how to account for them so I just assumed they cancel each other out somehow.
Edit: Actually Newcastle should be a bit lower as they either need Quins to deny Northampton a BP or else get one at Bristol.
Edit2: I've adjusted the numbers slightly to account for the above + I didn't take into account a few draws and also the fact that Gloucester's odds against Exeter have drifted a lot since yesterday - so they might be slightly more accurate now.

Odds shortening a bit on Quins to get the result they need in Northampton.
In France, Racing, Toulon and Montpellier are even shorter prices than I would have thought, so that would make it a straight shootout between Lyon and Brive. If Lyon beat Grenoble, they should be seventh. If they don't and Brive beat Castres, Brive are seventh. That assumes Paris don't get an LBP in Montpellier. If they do, they could have wrapped up the playoff spot before the final.
The French games kick off at 1945 our time and the English ones are at 1600, so should be able to catch a bit of both before and after our one.
Edit: Grenoble are now favourites to beat Lyon - not sure what caused that swing, but it would make it about 50/50 between Brive and Lyon. Kop Cabiste could be back in the Sportsground yet

Gloucester sound bullish and are fielding a strong backline today vs Exeter

www.gloucesterrugby.co.uk/news/13849.php#.WQ2t-uXyvIU

but journalists believe that Gloucester are saving their best for the Challange cup final

www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2017/may/...ester-weakened-teams

I guess the focus is on Northampton vs Quins today and see if the Challange Cup outcome affects plans next weekend.