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Playoff Contenders - A Vague Guide

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A guide to Connacht's potential playoff opponents, and how you can track their progress over the weekend ...

With the Champions Cup playoffs fast approaching and Connacht guaranteed a place, we naturally begin to wonder who they might face, and where. So here is a guide to all the games across the three leagues that could affect the outcome, just in case you want to tune it to a couple of them and run the rule over the potential opposition.

Friday

The weekend kicks off at 1905 on Friday when Cardiff Blues take on Zebre at the Arms Park (live on BBC Wales). An expected bonus point win here will put Blues six points clear of Connacht and a step closer to securing 7th place and a trip to France for the playoff.

If that looks all over by half time, switch over to BT Sport 1 for Harlequins v Wasps at 1945. Wasps start this one as favourites and defeat for Quins leaves them likely to miss out on the top 6 and be one of the teams in contention for 7th place. A win could help them qualify automatically, but even then they could still end up seventh.
Keep an eye on the score from Newcastle v Worcester, which kicks off 15 minutes later. Newcastle are not quite out of it yet and if Quins lose, a bonus point win for the Falcons should mean they're still in the hunt for 7th when they travel to Bristol on the last weekend.

Saturday

Saturday's action commences with a trip to France at 1345 for Castres v Toulouse (live on Canal+ Sport). Toulouse are not technically out of it but the anticipated defeat at Stade Pierre Antoine consigns them to the unfamiliar territory of the Challenge Cup, where, to add insult to injury, they may even end up as one of the bottom seeds. A win would also leave Castres almost certain to qualify automatically, thus taking two teams out of the equation for Connacht. Should Toulouse prevail, they'll both still be potential opponents. Toulouse would still be extremely unlikey to make up the ground but Castres could slip back into the firing line.

By the time that's over, Exeter will have kicked off against Northampton at Sandy Park (1500 BT Sport 2). Northampton are the favourites to take the last automatic spot and if they manage to overturn the Chiefs on their home patch, it should be job done. A more probable outcome is a win for the title-chasing Devonians as they seek a home semi-final. Saints don't really need the win to get sixth, as a home win over Quins the following weekend should see them home. A defeat for the midlanders could help Newcastle too (if results the previous night have gone their way) as it gives them a good chance of getting ahead of whichever team loses that Saints v Quins showdown.
(Ospreys v Ulster is on Sky Sports at the same time if you care who actually wins the Pro 12, but as most people of discerning taste know, winning the Pro 12 is, like, so last season.)

Time to start thinking of getting to the Sportsground now but there are a couple of interesting games about to kick off at 1730 in France.
Pau are a home to Brive, with the loser effectively out of contention. Even if Pau win, their upcoming trip to Toulon means they'll struggle to make 7th, but an away win for Brive gives them a chance when they host Castres the following week.
Meanwhile Clermont travel to the scene of their triumph over Leinster last weekend to play its normal residents, Lyon. This could be a key one as Lyon have been installed as the bookies' favourites to do a number on the Champions Cup finalists. Should they do that, they should be the likeliest team to finish seventh, with a short hop down the road the following weekend to play already relegated Grenoble in their architecturally impressive but increasingly pointless stadium. Lyon could even challenge Racing for the last automatic spot if it goes well for them. Both of those games are on Canal's Rugby+ channel, which alas they don't have in Rabbitt's, but keep an eye on the scores before kickoff in the Sportsground.

Next up is of course Connacht v Scarlets at 1935 (Live on TG4 if you can't make it in person). A win would provide a much needed morale boost going in to the playoffs. If Connacht lose, the sliver lining is that it would mean a home final if they can secure a win away in England.

Bordeaux v Toulon kicks off at about the same time (1945 Canal+ Sport). Bordeaux need a win to stay in contention for seventh. Toulon should qualify automatically but if they lose they will need to win on the last day to guarantee that.

Sunday

Wake up on Sunday morning and take in La Rochelle v Montpellier (1130 Sky Sports 4). This has absolutely no bearing on the playoffs as both teams are already qualified, but it's 1130 on a Sunday, it was after 1 when you left Rabbitt's, and the taxi back to Drumshanbo cost you a fortune, so put your feet up, have a cup of tea and enjoy the game.

After this you have about an hour and a half before the Premiership kicks off, so maybe go for a walk, cook some dinner, or if you can still remember your children's names, give conversation a go. That should take your to Bath v Gloucester on BT Sport 1 at 1500.
Mathematically, Bath can still be seventh, but it would take some strange results, starting with a home defeat to Glaws. Gloucester are the most likely English team to be in the playoff as they can claim the spot by winning the Challenge Cup as well as the less likely route of finishing seventh. If Quins and Northampton have already lost at this stage, a win puts Glaws in a good position. Bookies are not giving them much chance though, in which case they would need to beat Exeter on the final weekend to have a chance of wrapping up the playoff spot before the Challenge Cup final.

You're probably best to abandon that one at half time and switch over to Sky Sports 4 for the weekend's real grudge match, the Paris Derby when Stade Francais Paris take on Racing 92 in the Stade Jean Bouin at 1600. The term "no love lost" is thrown about all too much these days, but when one team has very recently tried (and thankfully failed) to basically buy the other, strip them down for spare parts, and chuck the remainder in the Seine, it does tend to add a bit of spice to proceedings. This could be your only chance to see Pascal Pape spear tackle Jacky Lorenzetti. More importantly, it affects who might end up representing the Top 14 in the playoff. Racing should be reasonably confident of getting into the top 6 but Stade start the game as favourites so could get ahead of Racing and push them into a pack of teams chasing 6th and 7th on the last weekend. A Racing win however, shoud see them safe (and off Connacht's radar) and consign Stade to the lower reaches of the table. Regardless of results however, Stade, like Gloucester, can render league standing irrelevant and claim the playoff spot by winning the Challenge Cup.

By now it's 6pm on Sunday and you're probably more confused than ever. Luckily enough you have tomorrow off to try and figure it all out.

 

Small Print

Errors and omissions excepted. Terms and conditions apply. Your home is at risk if you take out a second mortgage to book a trip to France and Connacht end up playing in England.

 

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Siob replied the topic:
8 years 10 months ago

Connnnnacht wrote:

Siob wrote: Could have a play-off between the losing semi-finalists, don't know how you'd sort home advantage though.


And what happens if the 2 of them have qualified?!


Everyone left picks a number between 1 and 23, whoever's right gets the spot...

It would be a very strange year if that happened, 2 out of 4 this year, neither in the final
Connnnnacht replied the topic:
8 years 10 months ago

Siob wrote: Could have a play-off between the losing semi-finalists, don't know how you'd sort home advantage though.


And what happens if the 2 of them have qualified?!
Siob replied the topic:
8 years 10 months ago
Could have a play-off between the losing semi-finalists, don't know how you'd sort home advantage though.
connachta replied the topic:
8 years 10 months ago

Shelflife wrote: It used to be that the next best position in their league would qualify.


And could be by "national Unions", not leagues. Even if it's unliklier than a play-off IMO

It's weird it wasn't sorted out, though
connachta replied the topic:
8 years 10 months ago
So we'll have to pray for Cardiff winning it as they did in the past. Straight into ChampionsCup if we manage to finish 8th as high as this year.
Lack of ambition, you'd say, but still a reasonable possibility
Shelflife replied the topic:
8 years 10 months ago
It used to be that the next best position in their league would qualify.
connachta replied the topic:
8 years 10 months ago
New rules :
What happens if BOTH Challenge Cup winner AND finalist are qualified through their League?
Exceptional play-off?

Edit : could well happen on a regular basis, for example 2 within 3 of LaRochelle, Ospreys or Bath, who weren't far this season
The IMF replied the topic:
8 years 11 months ago
Personally disappointed we wont see any Italian clubs in the top tier of european rugby for the foreseeable. I would've liked to have seen the introduction of a development / transfer "tax" imposed on clubs who continually pluck the best italian players from their clubs sides and then complain about the lack of quality in Italian rugby.
mahick replied the topic:
8 years 11 months ago

thehoneybadger wrote: On a side note I was at the final in Edinburgh last weekend and the Enisei team paraded the ERC shield the won that morning at half time. They've qualified for the Challenge Cup next season on the back of it. They looked pretty chuffed! Tried to attach a photo there but it didn't work....


Caught the Continental Shield game on an erc thread last Saturday. Had to cheer on our old pals Enisei, and you're right thehoneybadger, it meant so much to them. Delighted to see them do the walkabout with the shield at half time of the Final.
BOTH Enisei and Krasno Yar are in the Challenge Cup, so if we don't do the business tomorrow we may have another long journey next season..!!
thehoneybadger replied the topic:
8 years 11 months ago
On a side note I was at the final in Edinburgh last weekend and the Enisei team paraded the ERC shield the won that morning at half time. They've qualified for the Challenge Cup next season on the back of it. They looked pretty chuffed! Tried to attach a photo there but it didn't work....
pinky replied the topic:
8 years 11 months ago
It means that Champions Cup rugby every season is a realistic goal for Connacht, and that should have a positive effect on recruitment.
Based on this season's table it's a reduction of 15 points in the qualification mark (and 7, 7 and 14 in the previous 3 seasons).
connemara man replied the topic:
8 years 11 months ago
Much happier with this format, the league will work better for it. And any run in the challenge cup has a genuine benefit at the end with a spot in the Champions cup.
Mark Mostyn replied the topic:
8 years 11 months ago

salmson wrote: O'Shea is on record as saying he didn't want automatic qualification, and since the current agreements aren't up til 2020 for the Pro12 and 2018 for the EPCR, this couldn't have been brought in without their agreement. It's notable how they both picked up when they had something to play for towards season's end, and Dragons ended up finishing between them, so there's not even that clean delineation between Italy and the rest any more. Treviso finished 10th, 10th, and 7th in their first 3 years, before the Italian federation shafted them. They look to have stabilised and I expect them to push on now. Notably if you look at the last 7 seasons (of a 12 team league) only Zebre and Edinburgh would never have qualified for the HEC/Champions Cup under this rule.


They've signed a couple of handy players for next season too.
salmson replied the topic:
8 years 11 months ago
O'Shea is on record as saying he didn't want automatic qualification, and since the current agreements aren't up til 2020 for the Pro12 and 2018 for the EPCR, this couldn't have been brought in without their agreement. It's notable how they both picked up when they had something to play for towards season's end, and Dragons ended up finishing between them, so there's not even that clean delineation between Italy and the rest any more. Treviso finished 10th, 10th, and 7th in their first 3 years, before the Italian federation shafted them. They look to have stabilised and I expect them to push on now. Notably if you look at the last 7 seasons (of a 12 team league) only Zebre and Edinburgh would never have qualified for the HEC/Champions Cup under this rule.
ConnachtCows replied the topic:
8 years 11 months ago
I'm divided on this.

On the positive side of things, it is better for all non-italian teams, and the Champions Cup. Connacht have a much better chance of qualifying each season, and will keep the league interesting towards the end of the season

On the negative side, I feel the Italians will fall apart, and most likely disband. I've always thought a European Cup should try to include at least one team from each country.
Obviously I'm not campaigning for Romania, Georgia, Russia, Portugal etc. to all have a team in the tournament

Hopefully this will force the Italians to work harder to qualify on their own merit, rather than go out of business.
Connnnnacht replied the topic:
8 years 11 months ago

pinky wrote: I don't think Connacht can say they were ever done by any "Italian rule". Two season's ago we would have qualified if these new rules were in place, but this season we wouldn't even have gotten a playoff spot, plus we've had more than our fair share of qualification by dubious routes.
That said, the playoffs are a bit silly and this is a better system and gives more certainty, etc.
I'm very surprised the English and French agreed to it though. The whole rationale behind the extra place for the Pro12 was that they had to keep one for each country. With that gone, I thought they'd push for equal representation for each league.
Still no automatic spot for the Champions Cup winners - someday someone is going to get caught with that ...


It's hard to know on this one. We basically lay down to finish 8th. If there'd been a chance that 7th would have gotten us in there I'm sure we'd have finished the season stronger (at least I certainly hope so)
salmson replied the topic:
8 years 11 months ago

pinky wrote: Still no automatic spot for the Champions Cup winners - someday someone is going to get caught with that ...


I'd be delighted for it to be Connacht.
pinky replied the topic:
8 years 11 months ago
I don't think Connacht can say they were ever done by any "Italian rule". Two season's ago we would have qualified if these new rules were in place, but this season we wouldn't even have gotten a playoff spot, plus we've had more than our fair share of qualification by dubious routes.
That said, the playoffs are a bit silly and this is a better system and gives more certainty, etc.
I'm very surprised the English and French agreed to it though. The whole rationale behind the extra place for the Pro12 was that they had to keep one for each country. With that gone, I thought they'd push for equal representation for each league.
Still no automatic spot for the Champions Cup winners - someday someone is going to get caught with that ...
chops123 replied the topic:
8 years 11 months ago
Possibly the best news to wake up too, if this weekend doesn't go to plan it could add extra emphases to go for a good cup run and league like last season! Really good news for connacht who have been done by the Italian rule a few times! Exciting times ahead if KK can get the team going ! Cardiff and their recent surge of money will be our biggest threat
ThisYearWillBeDifferent replied the topic:
8 years 11 months ago
And no more playoffs. Challenge Cup winner or losing finalist takes 20th spot. Doesn't say what happens if both finalists already qualified.
clanman replied the topic:
8 years 11 months ago
Big news today no automatic qualifications for Italian teams after next season, so top 7 will qualify for Champions Cup, that's huge for connachts long term progress
MulMan replied the topic:
8 years 11 months ago
What will be the story with extra terracing for Bohermore and College Road will they be doing same as usual or putting up the extra spaces
pinky replied the topic:
8 years 11 months ago
If we do get through, good to see Connacht have learned from the mistakes of previous years and have a much more sensible ticket allocation policy.
One ticket per person and it's in the same section as your season ticket (subject to availability, but with only one per person, not too many people should be left wanting).
Not entirely happy about the 9am start to sales, but you can't win 'em all - I'm sure there'll still be some left by breakfast time.

9am - Sunday 21st – 48 hour priority access begins for 2016 / 2017 Season Ticket Holders
9am - Tuesday 23rd – 24 hour priority access begins for 2017 / 2018 Season Ticket Holders
9am - Wednesday 24th – Pending availability, any remaining tickets will go on general sale

For the first 48 hours, 2016/17 Season Tickets Holders are entitled to one ticket - in the same section and price category of their Season Ticket.
Diabhal replied the topic:
8 years 11 months ago
BEIN 5 is hopefully going to be showing it. Hope Sky sort their shite out and get this on before the Munster game.
pinky replied the topic:
8 years 11 months ago
Ah cool. If it's on beIN then at least there will be online coverage available somewhere.
And I presume it will be on either Sky or BT once they sort out which one gets it.