European Rugby 2023-24

Technically there's been no announcement from EPCR about the format for next season but the confirmation of an identical fixture list pretty much confirms that it's the same "temporary" format we inherited from the pandemic.
So getting fifth or sixth in the league would be handy to avoid the English and French finalists - seventh or eighth would likely give us Saracens/Sale and Toulouse/La Rochelle.
Complete guess at what the Challenge Cup format will be. Seventeen teams confirmed so it depends on how many invitational teams they bring in. Pumas and Griquas would bring it back to the 20 they had for the original format this season. The good news is that if we end up in there, at least we'll be a top seed.
My take on how this weekend is shaping up: rugby.connacht.pink/?p=129
And a few other Clan Members have had a cut at it too:
www.irishexaminer.com/sport/rugby/arid-41117902.html
www.sportsnewsireland.com/rugby/rugby_ir...urc-see-permutations

The below kinda sums up the main scenarios, though it ignores some of the more obscure bonus point situations, as I only had two dimensions to work with ...
(I know I probably lost a lot of readers at "Shout for Leinster")

Sol_ie wrote: I'm printing this out.

Don't look now Sean, but we are online ...

Thanks to everyone for refraining to point out that the flowchart was an abject failure. The key "Did Munster win?" decision should have included the draw.
I have let you all down.

It's all a bit simpler now though. Even I can't get this one wrong ...

Connacht qualify for the Champions Cup UNLESS
Sharks win the URC
OR
(Scarlets/Benetton win the Challenge Cup AND Connacht don't win the URC)

Bookies have Sharks as low as 14-1 to win the URC so apparently they can't be completely written off. I would have expected a bigger price but I suppose Leinster are potentially a bit vulnerable the week after the Toulouse game.
Scarlets have a very good chance against Glasgow at the weekend though, which would potentially set up a nailbiter of a final against Toulon. Of course if Treviso win as well, we need to win the URC (which will be inconvenient but good craic).

So a fairytale end to the season for Sharks is the only thing that can deny Connacht a Champions Cup spot.
Beating Ulster would give us at least a second seeding in the draw assuming we do qualify. Lose and we're playing two of the finalists.
In theory we could lose to the Sharks in the final and still miss out. Though we'd have home advantage so reckon we could take them ...

Premiership all finished so if we beat Stormers we'll play Bath or Exeter and if we lose it'll be West London to play Quins or Irish.


EDIT: As per below, this is not actually the case

Ah rats.
It says the same thing on the URC tournament rules page now that I read them again. The dates on that page are all last year's (nice work URC) so not sure if they changed or we just never noticed last season because all the home teams won the QFs so it was a moot point.
So Connacht are Pot 1 if we win tomorrow and Pot 4 if we lose. And Ulster are Pot 2 unless it's a Connacht Munster final (which it definitely will be) ...
You couldn't make these rules up without psychedelic assistance ...

Good point. The quotes from Martin Anayi's recent interview also suggest the format isn't yet agreed. But he might be talking about the following season.

So assuming we don't discover any more rules we've forgotten about, Connacht are seventh seeds for the Champions Cup draw, which if everything is the same as last year means we go into Pot 4 and play either Saracens or Sale and one of the French finalists, which is looking like Toulouse or La Rochelle but who knows maybe someone will upset Toulouse on the way and we won't have to go there again. I mean it's a nice spot and all but I'd say they're sick of the sight of us ...

Couple of interesting match-ups in the last round in France. If Bayonne can pip Lyon, they might squeak past them into the Top 6, where they'd play one of the Parisiens. But the reward for winning that would be an effective home semi-final as they're in Donostia / San Sebastián. Still a long shot but I'd love to go back to Bayonne. If Lyon win, they could get a home barrage as the three above them are all away.