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6 months 1 week ago #65505

So rain expected.

Should keep letal Halaholo quieter, and our pack is powerful than theirs (though it should be re-inforced for Champions Cup).

Last edit: 6 months 1 week ago by connachta.

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6 months 1 week ago #65516

Here's my view on the team next week

1) On the Zebre try replay, we can see Farrell is ok and not involved in any contact before going off, I'm confident it's precautionary move, we will have our Aki/Farrell pairing, probably one of the few best in the league with Lee-Lo/Halaholo they'll face

2) Heff was very very good, should retain his spot, McCartney might be prefered to Delahunt on the bench, to manage the important throws in the end of the game

3) McCoy is able to step up for Bealham, very relieving. He lasts 50 minutes though, hope Carey is back to hold the scrum and not conceed the final penalty which could have been so costly yesterday

4) Dillane is on fire, he can't be dropped. We need Roux' Stature to face the like of N.Williams. So despite having done ok, Thornbury on the bench to play the final 30. And prepare Quinn to refrain conceeding his 2 silly pens per game, we just can't afford it

8 ) Fainga'a/Butler. Great. I'd go with Copeland for physicality and knowlage about his ex teamates. McKeon is a 100% tackling-rate man, will be useful from the bench to help out tired legs

9) Marmion to start, better pacing, Blade to be injected, better impact, personal threat against an exhausted team

10) Carty has had two good game then two average games. Great, time for good game again. Godwin was just rested as overused IMO, he'll get the 22 jersey back to cover 10 12 13 I think

11) Our back-3 is settling very promisingly. Leader under high-balls, TOH running well again, and Healy tackling much improved. I'm confident they'll get the upper hand reaching their best at the right time.

12) for n°23 very tight call I've really liked what i've seen from S.Fitzgerald, but it's fine margin with Adeolokun and Kelleher, to close a game out in the final 15

13) OR, we have Godwin to cover 10 and 14, then one of Robb/Daly to cover 12/13

Last edit: 6 months 1 week ago by connachta.

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6 months 1 week ago #65517

Confirmed from Andy Friend, fingers crossed "Tom Farrell got a bit of a poke in the eye. We think he is going to be fine, we just need to see."


we just need to see. Will he?:P

Last edit: 6 months 1 week ago by connachta.
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6 months 1 week ago #65518

The bonus point win for Ospreys in Bloem piles even more pressure on this one. Had they lost, we'd have the playoff place sewn up but as it stands defeat could mean we need a favour from Cardiff on the last day just to hold on to fourth ahead of Ospreys.
On the other hand any kind of a win guarantees third.
The term "must-win" has probably been overused this season but you have my permission to use it this week.


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6 months 1 week ago #65519

pinky wrote: The bonus point win for Ospreys in Bloem piles even more pressure on this one. Had they lost, we'd have the playoff place sewn up but as it stands defeat could mean we need a favour from Cardiff on the last day just to hold on to fourth ahead of Ospreys.


You can see it the other way.
Ospreys will have everything to play for. If we lose vs Cardiff, Ospreys could do us a favour beating them and allowing us to get the 4th place, with only 1 or 2 BP in our last 2 games

If we don't conceed a 5-0 vs Cardiff, 4th place is nearly nailed.

Last edit: 6 months 1 week ago by connachta.

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6 months 1 week ago #65521

4-0 could have us in trouble, even 4-1 if Cardiff get an LBP on the last day and we ship a heavy defeat in Thomond. Our points difference was looking good after the Munster game but only adding the bare minimum to it in Parma makes it catchable.


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6 months 1 week ago #65522

4-1 (against us) is ok for the home european play-off IMO, even without any point in Thomond
If Glasgow win on final day at home (I think they will), Edinburgh, even with a LBP on this day, would have to beat Ulster by 40 (I think they won't)

( Assuming Ospreys vs Blues doesn't end in a nightmare 4-2 split for Neath-Swansea (we could be 5th in that unlikely scenario)

Last edit: 6 months 1 week ago by connachta.

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6 months 1 week ago #65523

pinky wrote: The bonus point win for Ospreys in Bloem piles even more pressure on this one. Had they lost, we'd have the playoff place sewn up but as it stands defeat could mean we need a favour from Cardiff on the last day just to hold on to fourth ahead of Ospreys.
On the other hand any kind of a win guarantees third.
The term "must-win" has probably been overused this season but you have my permission to use it this week.


There was a couple of games that Friend and players described as season defining a few months ago, particularly Cardiff which we proceeded to lose, I hope they have figured out what was missing in those earlier games and put it right.

Last edit: 6 months 1 week ago by phatguerilla.

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6 months 1 week ago #65524

Look at a bad scenario, and the good conclusion even there

Cardff 4 points, us 1

Ospreys 9 or 10 points and Cardiff still get a BP

Not the least point away in Munster.

Edinburgh managing to get 6 in 2 games

then still you have

Ospreys 58-59
Connacht 57 (+80 at worse before taking Munster loss into account)
Cardiff 57 ( + 62 in the end at best, + 7 vs us -1 vs Ospreys)
Edinburgh 57 ( + 40 at best before taking Ulster win into account)


So, it would need we fall by 18 points in Thomond, 1 week after their Champions Cup semi and before their Pro14 final phases. Doubt they'll give us such a beating.
So 4th it'd be

Then to be the "worst" 4th, we'd have to have a scenario where Embra win vs Ulster + our loss vs Munster close a 40 points difference. Could happen but unlikely too.
So home European play-off vs Edinbourg it'd be

Last edit: 6 months 1 week ago by connachta.

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6 months 1 week ago #65525

phatguerilla wrote: There was a couple of games that Friend and players described as season defining a few months ago, particularly Cardiff which we proceeded to lose, I hope they have figured out what was missing in those earlier games and put it right.


Yesterday we did. Good for the mental health of the squad. Winning not brillantly, but hanging on and having what we need in the end

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6 months 1 week ago #65526

connachta wrote: Confirmed from Andy Friend, fingers crossed "Tom Farrell got a bit of a poke in the eye. We think he is going to be fine, we just need to see."


we just need to see. Will he?:P


Just the laugh I needed after y/day game, thanks Connachta.


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6 months 1 week ago #65529

pinky wrote: 4-0 could have us in trouble, even 4-1 if Cardiff get an LBP on the last day and we ship a heavy defeat in Thomond. Our points difference was looking good after the Munster game but only adding the bare minimum to it in Parma makes it catchable.


Maybe I'm not getting it but wouldn't 4-0(or 4-1 or even 4-2) make us uncatchable to both ospreys and Cardiff? 60 points with either on a max of 54 with 1 game to play

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6 months 1 week ago #65531

Bazzo wrote:

pinky wrote: 4-0 could have us in trouble, even 4-1 if Cardiff get an LBP on the last day and we ship a heavy defeat in Thomond. Our points difference was looking good after the Munster game but only adding the bare minimum to it in Parma makes it catchable.


Maybe I'm not getting it but wouldn't 4-0(or 4-1 or even 4-2) make us uncatchable to both ospreys and Cardiff? 60 points with either on a max of 54 with 1 game to play


We're talking about a scenario of a Cardiff win with us taking a LBP.
Which as I pointed just above, still make us in contention for a home European Play-off

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6 months 1 week ago #65532

A win is done deal for 3rd, wholesale changes vs Munster and go to the Ravenhill (or Treviso) the week after.

Last edit: 6 months 1 week ago by connachta.

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6 months 1 week ago #65533

Bazzo wrote:

pinky wrote: 4-0 could have us in trouble, even 4-1 if Cardiff get an LBP on the last day and we ship a heavy defeat in Thomond. Our points difference was looking good after the Munster game but only adding the bare minimum to it in Parma makes it catchable.


Maybe I'm not getting it but wouldn't 4-0(or 4-1 or even 4-2) make us uncatchable to both ospreys and Cardiff? 60 points with either on a max of 54 with 1 game to play


Yes, any win of any sort and we're guaranteed third. Any kind of defeat we're probably fourth but in danger of fifth (though we could still possibly rescue third with a win in Limerick). I guess I should have said 0-4 or 1-4 above.
Of course even finishing fifth could get us into a playoff if the Pro14 gets an eighth place in the Champions Cup.


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6 months 1 week ago #65534

pinky wrote: Any kind of defeat we're probably fourth but in danger of fifth .


That's where we slightly disagree, what about my scenario above, rather pessemistic but still with a good outcome, after a 1-4?
(all depends on your definition of danger, of course, there would be danger but we'd still be favorite for the home play-off IMO)

Last edit: 6 months 1 week ago by connachta.

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