Connacht players for RWC

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2 months 4 days ago - 2 months 2 days ago #63394 by connachta
Connacht players for RWC was created by connachta
As it stands, what are the odds for our players to be in the plane?

LH : Buckley could be the Irish most "hard-done by" with no caps in his carreer. His inclusion in trainning squad this summer means he could have leapfrog Killer/Cronin as 3rd choice. Not playing both sides though, would need 1 or 2 injuries
Chances : 10%

Hookers : McCartney not involved, Heff was 2 years ago..
Chances (Heff IMO) : 1%

TH : Bealham played in the memorable win vs N-Z in the US. Plays both sides in Joe's POV. Could be useful if we bring only 5 props (à la Bent in 2015). Seems to have regressed in the picking order but does Ok this season. 1 injury from being in the plane
Chances : 15%

Locks : Roux isn't that good but appreciated by Joe. Dillane is being back to his best this season, beast mode.. Thornbury injury may well cost him. But competition elsewhere in the provinces
Chances : Roux 30%, Dillane 15%, Thornbury 5%

Back-row : As good as our guys are, absolute insane competition elsewhere in the provinces
Chances : 0%

SH : Marmion faces both McGrath and **Removed** Cooney. But has an advantage of anteriority with Ireland. November tests without Murray will be crucial. So will be the need to bring a kicking SH (Cooney) or not
Chances : 45%

Outhalf : nobody would have seen that coming, but Carty is an improved product, and clearly 4th choice now. Depend if we bring 2 or 3 OH, he might be 1 injury away, and Sexton has had injuries...
Chances : 15%

Centres : Bundee is nailed down. T.Farrell is constantly good, and should be considered as toe-to-toe with the other Farrell, McCloskley, Scannell for 4th choice
Chance : 90%

Back-3 : Let's face it, with Larmour and Carbery appeared, TOH won't go. Kelleher, though Irish capped, is a too weak defender and often turned-over. Niyi is a bit light for the internation level, so is Healy. But the latter has improved his defence a lot last season, still electric in attack, and muture player. He's a slim chance (capped vs S-Af btw)
Chances : 5 % cumulated, probably 2% for Healy.
Last edit: 2 months 2 days ago by sea_point. Reason: Removed offensive comment. Be better than that...
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2 months 4 days ago #63398 by Betty Swallocks
Replied by Betty Swallocks on topic Connacht players for RWC
Bealham will almost certainly make the WC squad if he keeps fit. He's leapfrogged John Ryan, Archer is a penalty machine, and unless Marty Moore starts pulling up trees? Buckley IMHO lies behind Healy and McGrath, but needs to cap this Autumn. Delahunt is a bolter if he gets a run in the first team. Roux, Dillane, and Thornbury all have a chance alongside Munster's Kleyn of getting the 5th lock spot in the squad. Marmion is a cert to tour, alongside Murray and Cooney (who will also cover as 3rd o/h and back up kicker). Bundee is a cert and I wouldn't rule out Tom Farrell if he continues his progression in front of his namesake Chris should any of the big three be injured.
Finally Connachta your use of the word traitor to describe John Cooney is distasteful. He is one of the game's gentlemen and served us well.
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2 months 4 days ago - 2 months 4 days ago #63401 by connachta
Replied by connachta on topic Connacht players for RWC
We agree overall then, except Bealham optimism
About the word, I retire it, I didn't like his move but I understand why he did so. Connacht is relatively blessed with SHs. I'm just frustrated because we lost many points by kicking misses, and he could have helped... Carty is on a good way in this area though.
Last edit: 2 months 4 days ago by connachta.

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2 months 4 days ago - 2 months 4 days ago #63402 by MulMan
Replied by MulMan on topic Connacht players for RWC
I'd also say that Sean O'Brien has a higher than 0% chance of making the RWC squad.
Last edit: 2 months 4 days ago by MulMan.
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2 months 4 days ago #63405 by pinky
Replied by pinky on topic Connacht players for RWC

MulMan wrote: I'd also say that Sean O'Brien has a higher than 0% chance of making the RWC squad.


Paddy Power are giving 100/1. Fifty quid on there would pay for the trip to Japan!
They have Ultan and Kieran odds-on. Finlay at 11/4 is interesting.

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"We haven’t liked the wind and rain for about four years now" - John Muldoon 1/1/2015
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2 months 4 days ago - 2 months 4 days ago #63406 by connachta
Replied by connachta on topic Connacht players for RWC
Heff and Buck as 50/1 should be better use of your 50 quids.
25 on each and you have a small but decent decent chance to win 1225 euros...
Last edit: 2 months 4 days ago by connachta.
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1 month 3 weeks ago #63558 by Betty Swallocks
Replied by Betty Swallocks on topic Connacht players for RWC
I see Handsome Leo of Leinster musing darkly on Friday of looking forward to seeing an Irish team with 15 Leinstermen on it in the not-too-distant future. Poor dear is pissed off Nick McCarthy is off to Munster. Didn't hear too much of same from him when he was centrally involved in poaching Endorsement from us back in early 2016. Hypocrite.
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1 month 3 weeks ago #63597 by MulMan
Replied by MulMan on topic Connacht players for RWC

worth a look, a real good pro and a really likeable guy, didn't quite know where to put this
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1 month 2 weeks ago #63680 by columoc
Replied by columoc on topic Connacht players for RWC
I see Marmion is not included in travelling party to US for Italy game. Only McGrath and Cooney at SH. Anyone know why? Is he carrying a knock or does it mean he will start vs. Argentina?

Seems odd to travel with only 2 SH specialists, mind you only 2 Hookers also. Given that Henshaw is not travelling, it seems JS has yet to make up his mind between Aki and Ringrose to partner him.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #63681 by Betty Swallocks
Replied by Betty Swallocks on topic Connacht players for RWC
I suspect Schmidt wants one more look at the Aki/Ringrose centre partnership. I think they will start against New Zealand.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #63690 by Westie85
Replied by Westie85 on topic Connacht players for RWC
I can't see Henshaw being dropped to be honest

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1 month 1 week ago #63695 by woger wabbit
Replied by woger wabbit on topic Connacht players for RWC
I'd say Henshaw/Ringrose are shoe in's. Bundee is a viable option but i'd say he is currently 3rd in line.

Re Marmion, it is probably a good sign he is not going to Chicago. In a straight fight for no 2 scrum half he is still a head of Cooney and way a head of McGrath (overrated). His problem may be that when it comes to picking a squad Cooney is a kicking scrum half and maybe more valuable with his versatility. I still think Marmion is nailed on as Murrays back up.
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1 month 1 week ago #63730 by Fast twitch
Replied by Fast twitch on topic Connacht players for RWC
Quinn Roux what a kick. He should back himself more often.
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