Pro 14 2018/19

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2 months 3 weeks ago - 2 months 3 weeks ago #64767 by salmson
Replied by salmson on topic Pro 14 2018/19

Enda wrote: If we win 5 out of our last 7 we could make third place on around 58 points


You'd hope 5 from 7 will get us through alright as we'd likely finish in or around 61 points (5 wins + 2 tbp + 1 lbp), but even that might not be enough if Ospreys win both games in South Africa.

Based our 50% record (implying 4 wins); or if you go by the excellent comparison thread, whether you go by points accumulated (38 from 14 implies 57 from 21) or the improvement from from last year (plus 12 points from 14 implies plus 18 from 21), you arrive at more like 57 points. That might leave us a tad short.

Looking at the contrasting schedules for expected wins - let's assume contenders win their home games, and win away to the bottom feeders - you'd expect we're still narrow favourites for 3rd, and 4th should be the minimum, given that both Welsh teams have manky fixture lists compared to us.

Ospreys: 4 wins (Ulster, Munster, Dragons at home; one win in South Africa).
Connacht: 5 wins (Cheetahs, Ospreys, Treviso, Cardiff at home; Zebre away).
Cardiff: 3 wins (Glasgow, Kings, Scarlets at home).
Last edit: 2 months 3 weeks ago by salmson. Reason: spelling, grammar.
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2 months 3 weeks ago #64775 by pinky
Replied by pinky on topic Pro 14 2018/19
Interestingly one bookie has us at 5/6 to make the top 3, marginally ahead of Ospreys at 10/11 and well up on Blues at 13/5, so that is giving me more confidence than the conference table.
There's also a chance that finishing fourth will get us through to the Champions Cup without a playoff if the four Challenge Cup semi-finalists are all qualified via their leagues (a reasonable prospect with Clermont and La Rochelle flying high and Harlequins and Sale thereabouts) and they apply the same (slightly bizarre) method of allocating the eighth Pro 14 place as they proposed last season: www.pro14rugby.org/2018/05/01/how-pro14-...-if-awarded-by-epcr/

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2 months 3 weeks ago #64785 by Borders no.2
Replied by Borders no.2 on topic Pro 14 2018/19
Ospreys are home to Munster unfortunately. Think we have to be aiming for around 60+ to have a realistic shot at 3rd. Home games and away to Zebre are non negotiable in terms of winning. None of those are bankers but lose any of them and its unlikely we will get there. If we do the business there picking up enough bonus points over the 7 games will determine if we get enough points.

Cardiff's run in looks tough enough. I think we should still finish above them if we don't implode but they've stung us so often in the past I'm wary of them visiting late in the season.

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2 months 3 weeks ago #64788 by Enda
Replied by Enda on topic Pro 14 2018/19
I am hoping on balance that during the 6 nations other teams will do us a favour. It’s a great problem to have but loosing a record 6 players to the Irish squad is a real pain right now. At 58 points I was not including bonus points as I always view them literally as a bonus, but you are correct we may need a few.

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2 months 3 weeks ago #64791 by Evil_g
Replied by Evil_g on topic Pro 14 2018/19
For what it's worth, we've lost seven games this season, but picked up an LBP in six of these.
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2 months 2 weeks ago #64823 by MulMan
Replied by MulMan on topic Pro 14 2018/19
Cheetahs won 40-36 v Kings over the weekend, they now move within 2 points of us, and are now level with Cardiff. Real possibility that we might end up losing out on a play-off spot to them now.

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2 months 2 weeks ago #64824 by salmson
Replied by salmson on topic Pro 14 2018/19

MulMan wrote: Real possibility that we might end up losing out on a play-off spot to them now.


No chance, Cheetahs will finish 5th or more likely 6th. Their recent rally is a quirk of the fixture list - home and away wins over Zebre and Kings since we beat them - and their next four games are all away to us, Scarlets, Leinster and Glasgow.
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2 months 2 weeks ago #64832 by pinky
Replied by pinky on topic Pro 14 2018/19
To lose out to them, we'd have to get ahead of Ospreys and Blues while Cheetahs get ahead of all three of us. Not realistic. If Cheetahs do manage to get ahead of us, we'll be sixth, not fourth.

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"We haven’t liked the wind and rain for about four years now" - John Muldoon 1/1/2015
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2 months 1 week ago #64933 by neill_m
Replied by neill_m on topic Pro 14 2018/19
Ospreys 0-8 Ulster
Edinburgh 34-17 Dragons
Munster 43-0 Southern Kings
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2 months 6 days ago - 2 months 6 days ago #64944 by connachta
Replied by connachta on topic Pro 14 2018/19
Ulster and Connacht put me in joy. I was expecting 4th place european play-off. Home possibly. Now for the 1st time in my opinion, we could target 3rd place Pro14 play-off!!!

Need 15 more points under my calculcation.
3 home win. 3 BPs somewhere (TBP or LBP)
Doable!!! Front up! Rise up!!
Last edit: 2 months 6 days ago by connachta.
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2 months 6 days ago #64947 by Borders no.2
Replied by Borders no.2 on topic Pro 14 2018/19
Cardiff pick up 2 bonus points late on against Glasgow. Keeps them in contention. They have to go to Edinburgh and Munster before playing us.

Basically 3 home wins and win at Zebre will see us home but Glasgow may be a chance to give ourselves some breathing room next weekend. We will need to be a lot better than tonight though.

Looking at Ospreys last night I fancy Munster to beat them next week.

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2 months 6 days ago #64948 by connachta
Replied by connachta on topic Pro 14 2018/19
Thank you, thank you so much Glasgow!

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2 months 6 days ago #64950 by pinky
Replied by pinky on topic Pro 14 2018/19
Cardiff Glasgow was some entertainment! I switched sides several times during the course of it.
Not the best result given all the bonus points. Cardiff only denied two points so they're not dead and buried, whereas the 5 for Glasgow puts paid to the slight chance we had of getting into the top 2. It looked a lot better for us on 73 minutes.
Overall though, it's been a productive weekend results-wise. Connacht are now odds-on for a knockout place.
Also given that we're (slightly) ahead of everyone in the other conference bar Leinster, there's a decent chance that even if we get to the QF and lose, we could get 5th overall and thus avoid the lowest seeding pot in the Champions Cup (though plenty of twists and turns before then).

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2 months 5 days ago #64955 by Accidentally Onside
Replied by Accidentally Onside on topic Pro 14 2018/19
Sat 2nd Mar 14:45pm
Guinness PRO14
The Sportsground
Ospreys

Sat 13th Apr 15:00pm
Guinness PRO14
The Sportsground
Cardiff Blues

That's our season right there- win those two and we won't go far wrong. Squad is in good shape fitness and form wise so no reason not to be positive, bookies like us anyway:
Conference A top 3 finish-
Munster - 1/33
Glasgow- 1/25
Connacht- 4/6
Osprey - 21/10
Blues - 21/10
Cheetahs- 9/1

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2 months 5 days ago #64956 by Podge57
Replied by Podge57 on topic Pro 14 2018/19

Accidentally Onside wrote: Sat 2nd Mar 14:45pm
Guinness PRO14
The Sportsground
Ospreys

Sat 13th Apr 15:00pm
Guinness PRO14
The Sportsground
Cardiff Blues

That's our season right there- win those two and we won't go far wrong. Squad is in good shape fitness and form wise so no reason not to be positive, bookies like us anyway:
Conference A top 3 finish-
Munster - 1/33
Glasgow- 1/25
Connacht- 4/6
Osprey - 21/10
Blues - 21/10
Cheetahs- 9/1


In addition - Cardiff and Ospreys have to play each other in last game of regular season - hopefully we have it wrapped up by then.

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2 months 5 days ago #64957 by MulMan
Replied by MulMan on topic Pro 14 2018/19
There's also a chance that if we finish 3rd we could end up playing Benetton in the QF, probably unlikely but given the way they've been performing of late that would not necessarily be preferable to Edinburgh or Ulster, but all places we've won in the past.
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