Pro 14 2018/19

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2 weeks 5 days ago - 2 weeks 4 days ago #64767 by salmson
Replied by salmson on topic Pro 14 2018/19

Enda wrote: If we win 5 out of our last 7 we could make third place on around 58 points


You'd hope 5 from 7 will get us through alright as we'd likely finish in or around 61 points (5 wins + 2 tbp + 1 lbp), but even that might not be enough if Ospreys win both games in South Africa.

Based our 50% record (implying 4 wins); or if you go by the excellent comparison thread, whether you go by points accumulated (38 from 14 implies 57 from 21) or the improvement from from last year (plus 12 points from 14 implies plus 18 from 21), you arrive at more like 57 points. That might leave us a tad short.

Looking at the contrasting schedules for expected wins - let's assume contenders win their home games, and win away to the bottom feeders - you'd expect we're still narrow favourites for 3rd, and 4th should be the minimum, given that both Welsh teams have manky fixture lists compared to us.

Ospreys: 4 wins (Ulster, Munster, Dragons at home; one win in South Africa).
Connacht: 5 wins (Cheetahs, Ospreys, Treviso, Cardiff at home; Zebre away).
Cardiff: 3 wins (Glasgow, Kings, Scarlets at home).
Last edit: 2 weeks 4 days ago by salmson. Reason: spelling, grammar.
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2 weeks 4 days ago #64775 by pinky
Replied by pinky on topic Pro 14 2018/19
Interestingly one bookie has us at 5/6 to make the top 3, marginally ahead of Ospreys at 10/11 and well up on Blues at 13/5, so that is giving me more confidence than the conference table.
There's also a chance that finishing fourth will get us through to the Champions Cup without a playoff if the four Challenge Cup semi-finalists are all qualified via their leagues (a reasonable prospect with Clermont and La Rochelle flying high and Harlequins and Sale thereabouts) and they apply the same (slightly bizarre) method of allocating the eighth Pro 14 place as they proposed last season: www.pro14rugby.org/2018/05/01/how-pro14-...-if-awarded-by-epcr/

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2 weeks 4 days ago #64785 by Borders no.2
Replied by Borders no.2 on topic Pro 14 2018/19
Ospreys are home to Munster unfortunately. Think we have to be aiming for around 60+ to have a realistic shot at 3rd. Home games and away to Zebre are non negotiable in terms of winning. None of those are bankers but lose any of them and its unlikely we will get there. If we do the business there picking up enough bonus points over the 7 games will determine if we get enough points.

Cardiff's run in looks tough enough. I think we should still finish above them if we don't implode but they've stung us so often in the past I'm wary of them visiting late in the season.

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2 weeks 4 days ago #64788 by Enda
Replied by Enda on topic Pro 14 2018/19
I am hoping on balance that during the 6 nations other teams will do us a favour. It’s a great problem to have but loosing a record 6 players to the Irish squad is a real pain right now. At 58 points I was not including bonus points as I always view them literally as a bonus, but you are correct we may need a few.

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2 weeks 4 days ago #64791 by Evil_g
Replied by Evil_g on topic Pro 14 2018/19
For what it's worth, we've lost seven games this season, but picked up an LBP in six of these.

“I have no business doing what I do if I listen to people who have no idea or experience of doing what I do.”
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1 week 5 days ago #64823 by MulMan
Replied by MulMan on topic Pro 14 2018/19
Cheetahs won 40-36 v Kings over the weekend, they now move within 2 points of us, and are now level with Cardiff. Real possibility that we might end up losing out on a play-off spot to them now.

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1 week 5 days ago #64824 by salmson
Replied by salmson on topic Pro 14 2018/19

MulMan wrote: Real possibility that we might end up losing out on a play-off spot to them now.


No chance, Cheetahs will finish 5th or more likely 6th. Their recent rally is a quirk of the fixture list - home and away wins over Zebre and Kings since we beat them - and their next four games are all away to us, Scarlets, Leinster and Glasgow.
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1 week 4 days ago #64832 by pinky
Replied by pinky on topic Pro 14 2018/19
To lose out to them, we'd have to get ahead of Ospreys and Blues while Cheetahs get ahead of all three of us. Not realistic. If Cheetahs do manage to get ahead of us, we'll be sixth, not fourth.

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15 hours 49 minutes ago #64933 by neill_m
Replied by neill_m on topic Pro 14 2018/19
Ospreys 0-8 Ulster
Edinburgh 34-17 Dragons
Munster 43-0 Southern Kings
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