Challenge Cup 2018/19

More
3 months 4 days ago - 3 months 4 days ago #63477 by pinky
Replied by pinky on topic Challenge Cup 2018/19
Even if we pull off an away win in Sale, it would be hard work to get a top 2 seeding after leaving that TBP behind. We'll also need a favour from Pat and Mul to keep La Rochelle's points tally in check. With those two results we would have a half decent chance of top 2 and maybe something like a home quarter against Worcester/Bristol followed by potential home semi against Quins to set up a final with already-qualified Clermont.
I'm not exactly fancying a result in the AJ Bell though. Brewery Field six days later is definitely a higher priority on my list of targets.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
"We haven’t liked the wind and rain for about four years now" - John Muldoon 1/1/2015
Last edit: 3 months 4 days ago by pinky.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 month 1 week ago #64115 by pinky
Replied by pinky on topic Challenge Cup 2018/19
Hard to predict anything better or worse than second place in the pool given Sale's greater efficiency in the bonus point market.
To win, we'd need them to lose one of their home games against the French teams they hammered away so we can forget about that as a realistic prospect.
Qualifying from second is very possible though, as points are fairly well shared out in the other pools. All second place teams have between 8-10 points (and there are a few third-placers on 7-8 who could come into play) so basically if we win our three remaining games, we just need no more than two of those teams to win all three, and with Saints going to Clermont and Bristol and Zebre both to go to La Rochelle, we should be OK.
Winning all three is of course far from assured given the rotation (the Blues game the week after round 6 is so much more a priority), but it's at least more or less in our own hands.
Bookies still have us 4th-6th favourites to win it (though the odds get pretty long after Clermont and La Rochelle).

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
"We haven’t liked the wind and rain for about four years now" - John Muldoon 1/1/2015
The following user(s) said Thank You: superconnacht7, ShaneM

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 month 5 days ago #64167 by MulMan
Replied by MulMan on topic Challenge Cup 2018/19

pinky wrote: Hard to predict anything better or worse than second place in the pool given Sale's greater efficiency in the bonus point market.
To win, we'd need them to lose one of their home games against the French teams they hammered away so we can forget about that as a realistic prospect.
.


Today's result for Sale opens up 1st in the pool again, and a realistic shot at a home QF. I really do hope we target something in this competition as it's always been a disappointment to not go far in it.
The following user(s) said Thank You: connachta

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • connachta
  • connachta's Avatar
  • Away
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
More
1 month 5 days ago - 1 month 5 days ago #64170 by connachta
Replied by connachta on topic Challenge Cup 2018/19
Moved from not a slight interest except bostering the squad confidence to wow, if we take 10 points, we could have the home QF and SF :D (semi's unlikely)
Last edit: 1 month 5 days ago by connachta.
The following user(s) said Thank You: superconnacht7

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 month 4 days ago #64172 by MulMan
Replied by MulMan on topic Challenge Cup 2018/19
the bonus points we left behind in the Bourdeaux and Perpignan home games could come back to bite us, also Sale getting the BP. Still though, it's now a real chance to top the group, maybe an away QF leading to a home semi might be better, ie if we finish 5th we play 4th win that and we'd likely have a home semi if the rules are as they used to be

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 month 4 days ago #64173 by pinky
Replied by pinky on topic Challenge Cup 2018/19

MulMan wrote:

pinky wrote: Hard to predict anything better or worse than second place in the pool given Sale's greater efficiency in the bonus point market.
To win, we'd need them to lose one of their home games against the French teams they hammered away so we can forget about that as a realistic prospect.
.


Today's result for Sale opens up 1st in the pool again, and a realistic shot at a home QF. I really do hope we target something in this competition as it's always been a disappointment to not go far in it.


This is an important like lesson in not listening to Pinky. What a defeatist!

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
"We haven’t liked the wind and rain for about four years now" - John Muldoon 1/1/2015
The following user(s) said Thank You: connachta, superconnacht7, MulMan

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 month 4 days ago #64175 by MulMan
Replied by MulMan on topic Challenge Cup 2018/19
I don't think you were alone in those predictions. It would have taken worrying optimism to think they would have lost against Bourdeaux today.
The following user(s) said Thank You: connachta

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • connachta
  • connachta's Avatar
  • Away
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
More
1 month 4 days ago - 1 month 4 days ago #64176 by connachta
Replied by connachta on topic Challenge Cup 2018/19
As I said, not worrying, but insane. And it was not only because of the red card there was 7-7 HT with 15 men each. Congrats UBB. Sale butchered 3 chances 5 m out from their tryline in the 20 ending minutes as I read. They refused the pen to get the draw, which is Very Very important to us.

A 4-0 or 5-1 win in the Sportsground should be enough to have our fate in our hands. (BP in Bordeaux won't be easy though, I'd take the 5-0 vs Sale, they're not a great team this season).
If it's sunny in Galway, and if we finally have these medical jokers before January the 12th, both condition will allow us to play this as a decisive game.

Don't forget, even a losing away SF may well qualify us for Champions Cup, as the main favorites for the final, Clermont and La Rochelle, will be alraedy qualified.
We should end playing 2 play-off games, Pro14 one, and if needed european one vs the other semi finalist, double chance :P
Last edit: 1 month 4 days ago by connachta.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 month 4 days ago #64177 by pinky
Replied by pinky on topic Challenge Cup 2018/19

MulMan wrote: the bonus points we left behind in the Bourdeaux and Perpignan home games could come back to bite us, also Sale getting the BP. Still though, it's now a real chance to top the group, maybe an away QF leading to a home semi might be better, ie if we finish 5th we play 4th win that and we'd likely have a home semi if the rules are as they used to be


Home semi against Clermont. Sign me up. I may be overdoing the optimism now.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
"We haven’t liked the wind and rain for about four years now" - John Muldoon 1/1/2015
The following user(s) said Thank You: Banm

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • connachta
  • connachta's Avatar
  • Away
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
More
1 month 4 days ago #64178 by connachta
Replied by connachta on topic Challenge Cup 2018/19
And then Irish Qualified Lam's men Heenan, Joyce, Sheedy and Piers O'Connor have beaten La Rochelle.

Final match away in Italy might be crucial for the potential home SF, Zebre support might be needed!

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 month 4 days ago #64179 by pinky
Replied by pinky on topic Challenge Cup 2018/19
The peculiarities of Siberian involvement mean that LA Rochelle and Zebre still have to play each other twice, so that pool is wide open. Bizarre that a top 2 seeding is now an outside chance.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
"We haven’t liked the wind and rain for about four years now" - John Muldoon 1/1/2015

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • connachta
  • connachta's Avatar
  • Away
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
More
1 month 4 days ago - 1 month 4 days ago #64180 by connachta
Replied by connachta on topic Challenge Cup 2018/19
Another outside chance as 2nd or 3rd seed is to host Pat Lam in the Sportsground for the QF!!!
Last edit: 1 month 4 days ago by connachta.
The following user(s) said Thank You: BeardySi, superconnacht7

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 month 3 days ago #64189 by pinky
Replied by pinky on topic Challenge Cup 2018/19

connachta wrote: Don't forget, even a losing away SF may well qualify us for Champions Cup, as the main favorites for the final, Clermont and La Rochelle, will be alraedy qualified.
We should end playing 2 play-off games, Pro14 one, and if needed european one vs the other semi finalist, double chance :P


Actually, if Harlequins can make up the couple of points on Worcester (likely as they have easier games), that's another home QF for a team likely to qualify via their league (though there's a few twists and turns to go yet in the Premiership), so there could end up being a qualification spot just for winning a QF.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
"We haven’t liked the wind and rain for about four years now" - John Muldoon 1/1/2015
The following user(s) said Thank You: connachta

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 month 3 days ago #64190 by neill_m
Replied by neill_m on topic Challenge Cup 2018/19

MulMan wrote: the bonus points we left behind in the Bourdeaux and Perpignan home games could come back to bite us, also Sale getting the BP. Still though, it's now a real chance to top the group, maybe an away QF leading to a home semi might be better, ie if we finish 5th we play 4th win that and we'd likely have a home semi if the rules are as they used to be


They of course have tweaked the home advantage rule in the semi finals. It is now the higher ranked side.

www.epcrugby.com/challenge-cup/format/rules/

Clermont 20
Sale 16
La Rochelle 15
Worcester 13
Harlequins 11

Zebre 14
Connacht 13
Ospreys 11

Non-Qualifying 2nd place
Saints 10 * Only played 3 games - game in Romania called off due to snow at weekend.
Benetton 10

Clermont v Ospreys
Sale v Connacht
La Rochelle v Zebre
Worcester v Harlequins
The following user(s) said Thank You: pinky, Fast twitch

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • salmson
  • salmson's Avatar
  • Away
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
More
1 month 3 days ago #64191 by salmson
Replied by salmson on topic Challenge Cup 2018/19
If you allow Northampton 4 or 5 points for the cancelled game, we're away to Clermont...

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 month 3 days ago - 1 month 3 days ago #64192 by pinky
Replied by pinky on topic Challenge Cup 2018/19
Actually I forgot to take Ospreys into account above, they should overhaul Worcester. If they were to get a home QF, that would be ideal, as if Connacht aren't top 3 in the conference, Ospreys probably will be.

Didn't realise they had tweaked the home advantage rules again. So winning an away QF doesn't get you any advantage anymore. The old hypothesis that you're better off being 5th seeds than 4th no longer applies.

If we can work enough magic to get ahead of Sale and Zebre knock a few points off La Rochelle in one of their two games, it could be a home QF against Zebre followed by a visit from La Rochelle that it mightn't even be necessary to win to qualify for the H Cup.
If we beat Sale but come up short on points, we'd probably be 6th seeds and go to Sale or La Rochelle.
Even if we lose one of the remaining games, there's a reasonable chance of squeaking in as 8th seeds and packing ourselves off to the Auvergne.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
"We haven’t liked the wind and rain for about four years now" - John Muldoon 1/1/2015
Last edit: 1 month 3 days ago by pinky.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Powered by Kunena Forum

You are not logged in.