The rocky road(s) to Champions Cup

Sounds like we won't have Bundee back for Edinburgh, and Leinster will be missing a bunch for their trip to Swansea, where we could do with a favour.

www.irishtimes.com/sport/rugby/pro14/mun...ulon-clash-1.3424431

Always thought players used to get released for this one, but now I look at it, I think Peter O'Mahony was one of the only ones who played in the equivalent fixture last year.
EDIT: Actually some years there were two fixtures between the 6N and the QF, so they got a rest week and still had a game before the QF.

If Treviso beat Kings today, it might actually be better for Connacht now if Cardiff beat Ulster, since we're not going to catch the Blues and Treviso would be a better end of season trip That said, if Ulster and Connacht were both to miss out it would be bad news for the IRFU coffers, so maybe we should just go with the send of season derby in Belfast option.
Edit: And Treviso have the TBP already.
... and nearly lose the game. Another try-fest in PE ...

No favours from the neighbours anyway
So the automatic spot is officially gone. Ospreys now a point ahead with a game in hand so need to beat them to have a shot at holding on for the play-off, which is now looking very likely to be Treviso.
In fairness to Blues they've given themselves a decent shot at catching Cheetahs now. Their trip to SA will be interesting.
Better news in the other leagues. Newcastle nearly blew it in James Park but hung on. TBP for Pau. Castres lost. Lyon could lose tomorrow.
Gloucester looking fairly comfortable too so might be more concerned about getting a Premiership semi than a Challenge Cup one ...

Wasps nearly did Falcons a favour at Welford Rd but not quite. Racing hung on for the win in Lyon though so good news for Pau.
We seem to be doing a lot better in the competitions we're not in.
Clermont utterly imploded in Toulon so you'd have to fancy Racing to have a decent shot against them next week, which would be one less thing to worry about.

So if Clermont get through, they will either play Munster in nearby Saint-Étienne or Toulon all the way down in Nice. You would imagine they would have a much better chance in the former than the latter.
www.epcrugby.com/news/37422.php
So a Toulon win in Thomond would probably be better for Connacht's qualification hopes. Of course Racing could beat Clermont, but we won't know that til the next day.
Like I'll still want Munster to win, but if they don't, there's that ...

salmson wrote: Rooting for Stade, Edinburgh, Brive, Leinster, Scarlets, Toulon & Racing this w/e*. Can't be supporting our southern brethren Pinky at our (possible) expense.

*And Connacht, obviously,

Stade and Brive I get. It's a tough one. Newcastle/Pau victories give us a better shot at qualification but less chance of the trophy, so I applaud your ambition on this front. Leinster, Scarlets and Racing are no-brainers.
But dazzle us with your Edinburgh logic. Wouldn't Blues have a better chance of taking out Pau or Stade at home than Edinburgh would in France?

I see. Yeah I'm kinda easy either way on the Newcastle/Pau games. I'd be tempted to take the middle ground of a Brive/Pau combo. That way we get a more winnable semi while retaining a chance of qualifying if we lose the final. Not sure I'd be any more confident playing a Stade side who had beaten Pau away and have nothing else going for their season than a potentially barrage-focused Pau.
Can't see much beyond Pau/Newcastle wins though.
Of course it all changes if we lose to Gloucester. Then it's Newcastle/Pau/Munster all the way to try and get an extra spot for the Pro14.

Well Clermont lost, which would've been great news if that kind of thing mattered anymore