Champions Cup Qualification 2017/18

This has popped up in various threads lately so figured I'd get a dedicated one going for it.
So I think the general consensus is that Connacht are not going to retain the title (there's 500-1 available if you disagree) so obviously the new target is to get back into the Champions Cup we just got knocked out of.
We can do that in two ways:
- As one of the 7 teams that qualify directly.
- As one of the two Pro12 teams that get into the four-way playoff for the final spot

The direct qualifiers are the highest placed team from each of the four countries and the highest placed three remaining teams.
If a Pro12 team wins the Challenge Cup and isn't already qualified they take one of the playoff spots along with the next highest placed team.
Otherwise the two next highest placed teams go through to the playoffs.

So if it finishes as it currently stands Ospreys, Munster, Glasgow and Treviso would qualify as the highest placed from their countries.
The other three automatic spots would go to Leinster, Scarlets and Ulster.
Cardiff would go into the playoffs as the next best team.
If Edinburgh won the Challenge Cup, they would take the other spot, otherwise Connacht would get it.

Contrary to what is often stated in the media, and even sometimes implied by the Connacht players and management, there is no automatic qualification spot for sixth place, sixth may or may not get in depending on the postions of the highest placed teams from the various countries. So if Connacht were to get to sixth at Glasgow's expense, they would only make the playoffs.

So to reach the minimum target of making the playoffs, Connacht have to hold their current position and hope Edinburgh don't win the Challenge Cup. Bookies have Edinburgh at 7/1 to do that. They have a home quarter and final, but would have a trip to Cardiff or Gloucester for the semi.

Connacht are 2 and 3 points ahead of Dragons and Edinburgh respectively. Significantly though, each of those teams has only one game to play against Italian teams, whereas Connacht have 3, including a game in hand over Dragons (but not Edinburgh, who have to play Munster on Feb 3rd).
Dragons have a tough run over the next five games, having to play all four Irish teams and Glasgow, so you would hope Connacht would open up a gap over them by the end of the Six Nations. Overall, chances of holding on to the current spot and making the playoffs look pretty good.
The first leg of the playoff would be guaranteed to be away against the seventh-placed English or French team, with the final venue decided by a coin toss.

Getting an automatic spot and avoiding the playoffs is a different story.
It's reasonable to assume Ospreys, Leinster and Munster are out of sight at this stage, and catching Glasgow is no help at all, as they just have to stay ahead of Edinburgh to qualify, so the target would have to be to catch Ulster or Scarlets. Ulster seems easier on the face of it at 12 points ahead, but they have the same games played as Connacht whereas we have a game in hand over Scarlets, who are 19 ahead.
Ulster's fixture list looks pretty favourable to them, with two home games followed by 3 Italian clashes then Dragons and Cardiff. By the time they get some tougher games at the end of the season, it could all be too late.
Catching Scarlets would probably be slightly easier, but is still a big ask. Both teams have similar fixture lists, having both played Ulster twice, and both have only four home games.
There are a couple of advantages Connacht have in terms of fixtures (of varying degrees of significance):
- Connacht have that game in hand against Zebre
- Scarlets have still to play league-leaders Ospreys (albeit at home) whereas they have already hammered us twice so they can't hurt us anymore. Our other fixture is against Cardiff away
- Connacht have Leinster at home, whereas Scarlets have to go to the RDS
- The game between the two teams is at the Sportsground

So to catch them Connacht would have to turn each of the above into four points (or hope we pick up another upset or Scarlets drop points against Dragons or someone), plus pick up a few bonus points here and there.
Next four games will decide whether we have a chance or not. Scarlets have three away trips to top 4 teams (plus a gimme 5 at home to Zebre), whereas Connacht's next four are all winnable. If we can get to within 7 with that game in hand, that might give us a bit of confidence.

So anyway, after all that, the conclusion is, we'd better flippin' beat Cardiff ...

Edinburgh are favourites to beat an understrength Munster tonight, which would put Connacht out of the playoff spots for the moment (albeit with a game in hand, etc., etc.).
So a Munster win would be a good start to the weekend (OK Ireland Women hammering Scotland will be a good start to the weekend but a Munster win would be an excellent continuation of that good start).

Some win for Scarlets.
Now I suppose we have to go to Scotstoun and win as well.

And why not......

So here is the real table.
We can ignore Munster/Leinster/Ospreys (can't catch them), Glasgow (no use catching them) and the Italians (not both going to catch us).
So the remaining two automatic spots and the two playoff spots are between the other six teams.
Top 2 qualify, next two to the playoffs (Edinburgh nick a spot if they win the Challenge Cup), bottom two to Russia or someplace.

Thanks for depressing the sh**te out of me with this Pinky. I was kinda hoping that if I didn't look to closely at the table all would be fine . I look forward to your next update when you tell us Saracens have imploded and we get them in the playoffs. Roll on Mother Russia........

If I got to the kickoff at Thomond Park with the playoff spot sewn up and with an outside chance of getting the automatic spot, I'd be very happy. Who knows what might happen on the last day. As S_P says, Munster mightn't need anything from that and they might even have a European final the following weekend.
I'm not expecting too many selection favours in Scotstoun though. Glasgow will surely want to re-integrate their internationals into the team before the trip to Allianz Park. Though I'm sure anyone doubtful won't be risked.
A very optimistic assessment of the chances (excluding the last game) would be 34 points for Connacht - 5 TBPs against the teams below us, beat Leinster and Scarlets at home and a LBP in Glasgow. So to stay within 4 of Scarlets, they'd have to be restricted to 20. The two home games against the Italians gives them 10, so assuming they get nothing on the 3 trips to Ireland, they could beat Dragons away and Edinburgh at home and still be within range on the last day.
We're kind of in the last chance saloon already so. If they turn Munster over on Friday week, I'll be calling the Melting Pot and telling them to get ready for us.

Good win for Blues away to Edinburgh. Would have been better for us if they'd lost, but at least it means Edinburgh are nearly out of sight - it's Challenge Cup or bust for them now.
Scarlets are threatening to turn the rest of the season into a mini pre-season in preparation for the playoffs ...